FC Schalke 04 vs Mainz 05 preview
In the Bundesliga fixture between FC Schalke 04 and Mainz 05, the 1X2 probabilities show Mainz 05 at 40% to win, while FC Schalke 04 stands at 34%. The most likely scoreline is 1-2, with an 8% chance according to our model. Both teams to score has a 70% probability, and Over 2.5 goals sits at 68%, indicating a strong likelihood of an active match.
FC Schalke 04's expected goals are 1.97, while Mainz 05's expected goals are 1.75, suggesting a competitive game. Recent form shows Schalke with two wins in their last five matches, while Mainz has three wins in the same period. This could affect the outcome, as Schalke may struggle to maintain consistency against a more stable Mainz side.
Why this pick: FC Schalke 04 vs Mainz 05
Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (FC Schalke 04 5, Mainz 05 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.
xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.
FC Schalke 04 vs Mainz 05: model vs market
| Source | FC Schalke 04 | Draw | Mainz 05 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 32% | 26% | 42% |
| Market | 33% | 26% | 41% |
| Published | 33% | 26% | 41% |
| Edge | -2% | 0% | +1% |
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.44, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update.
FC Schalke 04 vs Mainz 05 odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Mainz 05, 48 snapshots since 2026-09-21.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| FC Schalke 04 | 2.62 | 2.83 | +0.21 |
| Draw | 3.50 | 3.62 | +0.12 |
| Mainz 05 | 2.45 | 2.31 | -0.14 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
FC Schalke 04 and Mainz 05 expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.60
- Attack rating (FC Schalke 04 / Mainz 05)
- 0.91 / 1.58
- Defence rating (FC Schalke 04 / Mainz 05)
- 0.79 / 1.05
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
FC Schalke 04 vs Mainz 05 score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: FC Schalke 04 goals. Columns: Mainz 05 goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
FC Schalke 04 vs Mainz 05 goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 69%
- No goals (0–0)
- 5%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for FC Schalke 04 vs Mainz 05
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | FC Schalke 04 | 33% | 3.04 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.84 | |
| Mainz 05 | 41% | 2.44 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 66% | 1.50 |
| Under 2.5 | 34% | 2.98 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 69% | 1.45 |
| No | 31% | 3.20 | |
| Double chance | 1X (FC Schalke 04 or draw) | 59% | 1.70 |
| 12 (either side) | 74% | 1.35 | |
| X2 (draw or Mainz 05) | 67% | 1.49 | |
| Handicap -1 | Mainz 05 win by 2+ | 24% | 4.20 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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FC Schalke 04 and Mainz 05 recent form
FC Schalke 04
2W 2D 2L
Mainz 05
3W 1D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
FC Schalke 04 at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-2-0
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.00
- Goals against / match
- 0.00
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 2
- They have won 1 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 5 matches.
Mainz 05 away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-0-0
- Win rate
- 100%
- Goals for / match
- 4.50
- Goals against / match
- 1.50
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 2
- They have won 2 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 2.6 goals per match.
- 50% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: FC Schalke 04 at home only, Mainz 05 away only.
FC Schalke 04 vs Mainz 05 head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: FC Schalke 04 6 · draws 3 · Mainz 05 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-05-05 | Mainz 05 | 2-3 | FC Schalke 04 | Bundesliga |
| 2022-11-09 | FC Schalke 04 | 1-0 | Mainz 05 | Bundesliga |
| 2021-03-05 | FC Schalke 04 | 0-0 | Mainz 05 | Bundesliga |
| 2020-11-07 | Mainz 05 | 2-2 | FC Schalke 04 | Bundesliga |
| 2020-02-16 | Mainz 05 | 0-0 | FC Schalke 04 | Bundesliga |
| 2019-09-20 | FC Schalke 04 | 2-1 | Mainz 05 | Bundesliga |
| 2019-02-23 | Mainz 05 | 3-0 | FC Schalke 04 | Bundesliga |
| 2018-09-29 | FC Schalke 04 | 1-0 | Mainz 05 | Bundesliga |
| 2018-03-09 | Mainz 05 | 0-1 | FC Schalke 04 | Bundesliga |
| 2017-10-20 | FC Schalke 04 | 2-0 | Mainz 05 | Bundesliga |
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Before and after this match
- FC Schalke 04, previous: Freiburg – FC Schalke 04, 2026-10-11
- FC Schalke 04, next: Dynamo Dresden vs FC Schalke 04: odds and pick
- Mainz 05, previous: Mainz 05 v Bayer Leverkusen analysis
- Mainz 05, next: Bochum v Mainz 05 analysis