Hamburger SV vs VfB Stuttgart preview
In the Bundesliga fixture between Hamburger SV and VfB Stuttgart, the 1X2 probabilities show Hamburger SV at 27%, a draw at 23%, and VfB Stuttgart leading at 50%. The most likely scoreline is 1-2, occurring with an 8% chance.
Both teams have strong potential for scoring, with our model predicting Over 2.5 goals at 78% and both teams to score also at 78%. Hamburger SV's expected goals stand at 2.13, while VfB Stuttgart's are slightly higher at 2.25. Recent form shows Hamburger SV with 3 wins in their last 6 matches, while VfB Stuttgart has 3 wins as well, but with a more inconsistent pattern.
Why this pick: Hamburger SV vs VfB Stuttgart
Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Hamburger SV 10, VfB Stuttgart 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.
xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.
Hamburger SV vs VfB Stuttgart: model vs market
| Source | Hamburger SV | Draw | VfB Stuttgart |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 31% | 24% | 45% |
| Market | 25% | 23% | 52% |
| Published | 27% | 23% | 50% |
| Edge | +6% | +1% | -6% |
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.90, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update.
Hamburger SV vs VfB Stuttgart odds movement
Median bookmaker price on VfB Stuttgart, 48 snapshots since 2026-09-21.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hamburger SV | 4.20 | 3.75 | -0.45 |
| Draw | 4.20 | 4.04 | -0.16 |
| VfB Stuttgart | 1.70 | 1.83 | +0.13 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Hamburger SV and VfB Stuttgart expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 4.06
- Attack rating (Hamburger SV / VfB Stuttgart)
- 0.85 / 1.27
- Defence rating (Hamburger SV / VfB Stuttgart)
- 1.15 / 1.24
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Hamburger SV vs VfB Stuttgart score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Hamburger SV goals. Columns: VfB Stuttgart goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Hamburger SV vs VfB Stuttgart goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 74%
- No goals (0–0)
- 4%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Hamburger SV vs VfB Stuttgart
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Hamburger SV | 27% | 3.77 |
| Draw | 23% | 4.26 | |
| VfB Stuttgart | 50% | 2.00 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 74% | 1.35 |
| Under 2.5 | 26% | 3.86 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 74% | 1.35 |
| No | 26% | 3.87 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Hamburger SV or draw) | 50% | 2.00 |
| 12 (either side) | 77% | 1.31 | |
| X2 (draw or VfB Stuttgart) | 73% | 1.36 | |
| Handicap -1 | VfB Stuttgart win by 2+ | 27% | 3.67 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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Hamburger SV and VfB Stuttgart recent form
Hamburger SV
3W 0D 3L
VfB Stuttgart
3W 0D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Hamburger SV at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-0-1
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 3.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 2
- They have won 2 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 5 matches.
VfB Stuttgart away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-0-2
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 1.33
- Goals against / match
- 2.33
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 3
- They have won 2 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
League matches this season before kick-off: Hamburger SV at home only, VfB Stuttgart away only.
Hamburger SV vs VfB Stuttgart head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Hamburger SV 3 · draws 1 · VfB Stuttgart 6.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-12 | VfB Stuttgart | 4-0 | Hamburger SV | Bundesliga |
| 2025-11-30 | Hamburger SV | 2-1 | VfB Stuttgart | Bundesliga |
| 2023-06-05 | Hamburger SV | 1-3 | VfB Stuttgart | Bundesliga |
| 2023-06-01 | VfB Stuttgart | 3-0 | Hamburger SV | Bundesliga |
| 2020-08-26 | VfB Stuttgart | 3-2 | Hamburger SV | Friendlies Clubs |
| 2020-05-28 | VfB Stuttgart | 3-2 | Hamburger SV | 2. Bundesliga |
| 2019-10-29 | Hamburger SV | 1-2 | VfB Stuttgart | DFB Pokal |
| 2019-10-26 | Hamburger SV | 6-2 | VfB Stuttgart | 2. Bundesliga |
| 2018-03-31 | VfB Stuttgart | 1-1 | Hamburger SV | Bundesliga |
| 2017-11-04 | Hamburger SV | 3-1 | VfB Stuttgart | Bundesliga |
Other Matchday 6 fixtures
- Eintracht Frankfurt vs FC Cologne 2026-10-16
- Werder Bremen vs SC Paderborn 07 2026-10-17
- FC Schalke 04 v Mainz 05 — match page 2026-10-17
- Union Berlin vs Borussia Dortmund 2026-10-17
- SV Elversberg v Augsburg — match page 2026-10-17
- Bayern Munich vs RasenBallsport Leipzig — team news & stats 2026-10-17
- Bayer Leverkusen vs Freiburg — team news & stats 2026-10-18
- Borussia M.Gladbach v Hoffenheim — match page 2026-10-18
Before and after this match
- Hamburger SV, previous: Hoffenheim vs Hamburger SV prediction
- Hamburger SV, next: Hamburger SV – Eintracht Frankfurt, 2026-10-27
- VfB Stuttgart, previous: Slovan Bratislava vs VfB Stuttgart prediction
- VfB Stuttgart, next: VfB Stuttgart v Atletico Madrid analysis