SV Elversberg vs Augsburg preview
In the Bundesliga fixture between SV Elversberg and Augsburg, the 1X2 probabilities show SV Elversberg at 41%, Augsburg at 34%, and a draw at 25%. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 2-1, with a 9% chance.
Both teams are expected to score, with a probability of 70%, and there is a strong likelihood of Over 2.5 goals at 69%. SV Elversberg has an expected goals figure of 2.27, while Augsburg sits at 1.51. However, recent form shows SV Elversberg with two losses in their last three matches, which could impact their performance.
Why this pick: SV Elversberg vs Augsburg
Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (SV Elversberg 5, Augsburg 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.
xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.
SV Elversberg vs Augsburg: model vs market
| Source | SV Elversberg | Draw | Augsburg |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 55% | 23% | 23% |
| Market | 39% | 25% | 36% |
| Published | 43% | 24% | 33% |
| Edge | +16% | -2% | -14% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.58 vs 1.49.
- The market prices SV Elversberg below the model: +15.8 percentage points of edge.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.55, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update.
SV Elversberg vs Augsburg odds movement
Median bookmaker price on SV Elversberg, 48 snapshots since 2026-09-21.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| SV Elversberg | 2.75 | 2.42 | -0.33 |
| Draw | 3.70 | 3.77 | +0.07 |
| Augsburg | 2.30 | 2.60 | +0.30 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
SV Elversberg and Augsburg expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 4.08
- Attack rating (SV Elversberg / Augsburg)
- 1.12 / 1.14
- Defence rating (SV Elversberg / Augsburg)
- 0.90 / 1.25
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
SV Elversberg vs Augsburg score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: SV Elversberg goals. Columns: Augsburg goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
SV Elversberg vs Augsburg goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 71%
- No goals (0–0)
- 4%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for SV Elversberg vs Augsburg
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | SV Elversberg | 43% | 2.34 |
| Draw | 24% | 4.10 | |
| Augsburg | 33% | 3.05 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 73% | 1.36 |
| Under 2.5 | 27% | 3.76 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 71% | 1.40 |
| No | 29% | 3.51 | |
| Double chance | 1X (SV Elversberg or draw) | 67% | 1.49 |
| 12 (either side) | 76% | 1.32 | |
| X2 (draw or Augsburg) | 57% | 1.75 | |
| Handicap -1 | SV Elversberg win by 2+ | 35% | 2.83 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
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SV Elversberg and Augsburg recent form
SV Elversberg
3W 1D 2L
Augsburg
3W 2D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
SV Elversberg at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-0-1
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 2.00
- Goals against / match
- 2.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 2
- They have won 2 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
Augsburg away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-0-1
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 3.00
- Goals against / match
- 2.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 2
- They have won 2 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 2.6 goals per match.
League matches this season before kick-off: SV Elversberg at home only, Augsburg away only.
SV Elversberg vs Augsburg head-to-head
Last 1 meetings: SV Elversberg 0 · draws 0 · Augsburg 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015-08-07 | SV Elversberg | 1-3 | Augsburg | DFB Pokal |
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Before and after this match
- SV Elversberg, previous: Union Berlin vs SV Elversberg: odds and pick
- SV Elversberg, next: SV Elversberg v Darmstadt analysis
- Augsburg, previous: Augsburg – Bayern Munich, 2026-10-10
- Augsburg, next: SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach vs Augsburg: odds and pick