Borussia M.Gladbach vs Hoffenheim preview
In the Bundesliga fixture between Borussia M.Gladbach and Hoffenheim, the 1X2 probabilities show Hoffenheim at 46%, while Borussia M.Gladbach stands at 31%. The most likely scoreline is 1-2, with an 8% chance. Additionally, there is a strong expectation for Over 2.5 goals at 70% and both teams to score at 72%.
Borussia M.Gladbach's recent form includes five losses followed by one win, while Hoffenheim has two wins in their last six matches. Despite Borussia M.Gladbach having a better head-to-head record with 3 wins in the last 6 encounters, their current form could lead to an unexpected outcome.
Why this pick: Borussia M.Gladbach vs Hoffenheim
Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Borussia M.Gladbach 10, Hoffenheim 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.
xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.
Borussia M.Gladbach vs Hoffenheim: model vs market
| Source | Borussia M.Gladbach | Draw | Hoffenheim |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 36% | 25% | 38% |
| Market | 31% | 24% | 45% |
| Published | 32% | 24% | 44% |
| Edge | +5% | +2% | -7% |
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.17, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update.
Borussia M.Gladbach vs Hoffenheim odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Hoffenheim, 12 snapshots since 2026-10-09.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Borussia M.Gladbach | 3.30 | 3.02 | -0.27 |
| Draw | 4.07 | 3.98 | -0.10 |
| Hoffenheim | 1.93 | 2.08 | +0.15 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Borussia M.Gladbach and Hoffenheim expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.83
- Attack rating (Borussia M.Gladbach / Hoffenheim)
- 1.05 / 1.06
- Defence rating (Borussia M.Gladbach / Hoffenheim)
- 1.20 / 1.03
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Borussia M.Gladbach vs Hoffenheim score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Borussia M.Gladbach goals. Columns: Hoffenheim goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Borussia M.Gladbach vs Hoffenheim goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 72%
- No goals (0–0)
- 4%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Borussia M.Gladbach vs Hoffenheim
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Borussia M.Gladbach | 32% | 3.09 |
| Draw | 24% | 4.16 | |
| Hoffenheim | 44% | 2.29 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 70% | 1.42 |
| Under 2.5 | 30% | 3.36 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 72% | 1.39 |
| No | 28% | 3.55 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Borussia M.Gladbach or draw) | 56% | 1.77 |
| 12 (either side) | 76% | 1.32 | |
| X2 (draw or Hoffenheim) | 68% | 1.48 | |
| Handicap -1 | Hoffenheim win by 2+ | 21% | 4.66 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 17% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
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Borussia M.Gladbach and Hoffenheim recent form
Borussia M.Gladbach
1W 0D 5L
Hoffenheim
1W 0D 5L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Borussia M.Gladbach at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-0-2
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 3.00
- Goals against / match
- 4.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 2
Hoffenheim away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-0-2
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 1.50
- Goals against / match
- 3.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 2
League matches this season before kick-off: Borussia M.Gladbach at home only, Hoffenheim away only.
Borussia M.Gladbach vs Hoffenheim head-to-head
Last 6 meetings: Borussia M.Gladbach 3 · draws 1 · Hoffenheim 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-16 | Borussia M.Gladbach | 4-0 | Hoffenheim | Bundesliga |
| 2026-01-14 | Hoffenheim | 5-1 | Borussia M.Gladbach | Bundesliga |
| 2025-05-03 | Borussia M.Gladbach | 4-4 | Hoffenheim | Bundesliga |
| 2024-12-21 | Hoffenheim | 1-2 | Borussia M.Gladbach | Bundesliga |
| 2024-04-20 | Hoffenheim | 4-3 | Borussia M.Gladbach | Bundesliga |
| 2023-12-02 | Borussia M.Gladbach | 2-1 | Hoffenheim | Bundesliga |
Other Matchday 6 fixtures
- Eintracht Frankfurt vs FC Cologne 2026-10-16
- Werder Bremen vs SC Paderborn 07 2026-10-17
- FC Schalke 04 v Mainz 05 — match page 2026-10-17
- Hamburger SV vs VfB Stuttgart — team news & stats 2026-10-17
- Union Berlin vs Borussia Dortmund 2026-10-17
- SV Elversberg v Augsburg — match page 2026-10-17
- Bayern Munich vs RasenBallsport Leipzig — team news & stats 2026-10-17
- Bayer Leverkusen vs Freiburg — team news & stats 2026-10-18
Before and after this match
- Borussia M.Gladbach, previous: FC Cologne – Borussia M.Gladbach, 2026-10-11
- Borussia M.Gladbach, next: Borussia M.Gladbach – Karlsruher SC, 2026-10-27
- Hoffenheim, previous: Hoffenheim v Beşiktaş analysis
- Hoffenheim, next: Hoffenheim – Lyon, 2026-10-22