Hoffenheim vs Lyon Prediction & Betting Tips 22/10/2026

Hoffenheim vs Lyon preview

In the UEFA Europa League fixture between Hoffenheim and Lyon, the 1X2 probabilities show Hoffenheim at 40%, Lyon at 36%, and a draw at 24%. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, with an 8% chance of occurring. The model predicts a high likelihood of goals, with Over 2.5 goals at 68% and both teams to score at 69%.

Hoffenheim's recent form includes three losses followed by one win, while Lyon has two wins, one draw, and two losses in their last five matches. The expected goals are 1.80 for Hoffenheim and 1.72 for Lyon, indicating a competitive match. However, if Hoffenheim fails to improve their form, the outcome could differ from the predictions.

Why this pick: Hoffenheim vs Lyon

Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Hoffenheim 10, Lyon 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.

HoffenheimLyon

1.98 xG per 90 1.82

1.89 npxG per 90 1.73

8.1 PPDA 11.5

13.3 Deep completions per 90 9.3

1.56 xPTS per 90 1.62

xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.

Hoffenheim vs Lyon: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	Hoffenheim	Draw	Lyon
Model	40%	24%	36%
Market	—	—	—
Published	40%	24%	36%
Edge	—	—	—

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).

Hoffenheim and Lyon expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.80Hoffenheim

1.72Lyon

Total expected goals: 3.52
Attack rating (Hoffenheim / Lyon): 1.24 / 1.25
Defence rating (Hoffenheim / Lyon): 1.20 / 0.94

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Hoffenheim vs Lyon score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 3.9% 4.2% 4.4% 2.5% 1.6% 1 4.4% 10.1% 7.9% 4.5% 2.9% 2 4.8% 8.2% 7.1% 4.1% 2.6% 3 2.9% 5.0% 4.3% 2.4% 1.6% 4+ 1.9% 3.4% 2.9% 1.7% 1.1%

Rows: Hoffenheim goals. Columns: Lyon goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Hoffenheim vs Lyon goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 96%

Over 1.5 88%

Over 2.5 68%

Over 3.5 47%

Both teams to score: 69%
No goals (0–0): 4%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Hoffenheim vs Lyon

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	Hoffenheim	40%	2.52
	Draw	24%	4.17
	Lyon	36%	2.75
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	68%	1.46
	Under 2.5	32%	3.16
Both teams to score	Yes	69%	1.44
	No	31%	3.28
Double chance	1X (Hoffenheim or draw)	64%	1.57
	12 (either side)	76%	1.32
	X2 (draw or Lyon)	60%	1.66
Handicap -1	Hoffenheim win by 2+	21%	4.66
	Push (exactly one goal)	18%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

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Where to bet on this match in Kenya

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