Olympiakos Piraeus vs Sparta Praha Prediction & Betting Tips 22/10/2026

Olympiakos Piraeus vs Sparta Praha preview

In the UEFA Europa League fixture between Olympiakos Piraeus and Sparta Praha, the 1X2 probabilities show Olympiakos Piraeus at 40%, while Sparta Praha is at 29%. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, with an 11% chance according to our model. Recent form indicates Olympiakos Piraeus has a mixed record with W-W-W-L-W-D, while Sparta Praha has won 4 of their last 6 matches but lost the last 2.

The expected goals are 1.27 for Olympiakos Piraeus and 1.05 for Sparta Praha. There is a 41% chance of Over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance for both teams to score. Factors like a sudden change in team form or key player absences could influence the outcome.

Olympiakos Piraeus vs Sparta Praha: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	Olympiakos Piraeus	Draw	Sparta Praha
Model	40%	31%	29%
Market	—	—	—
Published	40%	31%	29%
Edge	—	—	—

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).

Olympiakos Piraeus and Sparta Praha expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.27Olympiakos Piraeus

1.05Sparta Praha

Total expected goals: 2.31
Attack rating (Olympiakos Piraeus / Sparta Praha): 0.99 / 1.44
Defence rating (Olympiakos Piraeus / Sparta Praha): 0.63 / 0.83

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Olympiakos Piraeus vs Sparta Praha score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 11.2% 9.0% 5.4% 1.9% 0.6% 1 11.2% 14.4% 6.9% 2.4% 0.8% 2 8.0% 8.3% 4.3% 1.5% 0.5% 3 3.4% 3.5% 1.8% 0.6% 0.2% 4+ 1.4% 1.5% 0.8% 0.3% 0.1%

Rows: Olympiakos Piraeus goals. Columns: Sparta Praha goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Olympiakos Piraeus vs Sparta Praha goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 89%

Over 1.5 69%

Over 2.5 41%

Over 3.5 20%

Both teams to score: 48%
No goals (0–0): 11%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Olympiakos Piraeus vs Sparta Praha

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	Olympiakos Piraeus	40%	2.49
	Draw	31%	3.26
	Sparta Praha	29%	3.43
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	41%	2.45
	Under 2.5	59%	1.69
Both teams to score	Yes	48%	2.09
	No	52%	1.92
Double chance	1X (Olympiakos Piraeus or draw)	71%	1.41
	12 (either side)	69%	1.44
	X2 (draw or Sparta Praha)	60%	1.67
Handicap -1	Olympiakos Piraeus win by 2+	19%	5.39
	Push (exactly one goal)	22%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

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Where to bet on this match in Kenya

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