Baník Ostrava vs Sparta Praha preview
In the Czech Liga fixture between Baník Ostrava and Sparta Praha, the 1X2 probabilities show Baník Ostrava at 21%, a draw at 23%, and Sparta Praha at 55%. The most likely scoreline is 1-2, which aligns with the expected goals of Baník Ostrava at 1.04 and Sparta Praha at 2.03.
The model suggests a 59% chance for Over 2.5 goals and a 57% chance for both teams to score. However, Baník Ostrava's recent form, with 4 losses in their last 5 matches, could impact their performance. Conversely, Sparta Praha has won 3 of their last 4 games, indicating they are in better form.
Baník Ostrava vs Sparta Praha: model vs market
| Source | Baník Ostrava | Draw | Sparta Praha |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 18% | 23% | 59% |
| Market | 23% | 24% | 53% |
| Published | 22% | 24% | 55% |
| Edge | -5% | -1% | +6% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.03 vs 1.04.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- The market prices Sparta Praha below the model: +6.3 percentage points of edge.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.79, recorded — the top price across the 9 books we record, each at its own last update.
Baník Ostrava vs Sparta Praha odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Sparta Praha, 6 snapshots since 2026-10-12.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Baník Ostrava | 4.10 | 4.03 | -0.07 |
| Draw | 3.95 | 3.92 | -0.03 |
| Sparta Praha | 1.74 | 1.75 | +0.01 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Baník Ostrava and Sparta Praha expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.07
- Attack rating (Baník Ostrava / Sparta Praha)
- 0.88 / 1.45
- Defence rating (Baník Ostrava / Sparta Praha)
- 1.12 / 0.83
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Baník Ostrava vs Sparta Praha score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Baník Ostrava goals. Columns: Sparta Praha goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Baník Ostrava vs Sparta Praha goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 57%
- No goals (0–0)
- 6%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Baník Ostrava vs Sparta Praha
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Baník Ostrava | 22% | 4.60 |
| Draw | 24% | 4.25 | |
| Sparta Praha | 55% | 1.83 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 59% | 1.69 |
| Under 2.5 | 41% | 2.45 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 57% | 1.75 |
| No | 43% | 2.33 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Baník Ostrava or draw) | 45% | 2.21 |
| 12 (either side) | 76% | 1.31 | |
| X2 (draw or Sparta Praha) | 78% | 1.28 | |
| Handicap -1 | Sparta Praha win by 2+ | 37% | 2.72 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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Baník Ostrava and Sparta Praha recent form
Baník Ostrava
1W 1D 4L
Sparta Praha
4W 0D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Baník Ostrava at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-0-2
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 0.75
- Goals against / match
- 1.50
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 4
- They have won 3 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 9 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 9 matches.
Sparta Praha away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-0-3
- Win rate
- 40%
- Goals for / match
- 1.80
- Goals against / match
- 1.40
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 5
- They have won 5 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 9 matches.
- They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).
League matches this season before kick-off: Baník Ostrava at home only, Sparta Praha away only.
Baník Ostrava vs Sparta Praha head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Baník Ostrava 0 · draws 0 · Sparta Praha 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-28 | Sparta Praha | 5-2 | Baník Ostrava | Czech Liga |
| 2025-09-27 | Baník Ostrava | 0-3 | Sparta Praha | Czech Liga |
Other Matchday 11 fixtures
- Slavia Praha vs Hradec Králové — team news & stats 2026-10-17
- Mlada Boleslav vs Teplice 2026-10-17
- Pardubice vs Zlin — team news & stats 2026-10-17
- Artis vs Bohemians 1905 2026-10-17
- Sigma Olomouc vs Slovan Liberec — team news & stats 2026-10-17
- Slovácko v Zbrojovka Brno — match page 2026-10-18
- FK Jablonec v Plzen — match page 2026-10-18
Before and after this match
- Baník Ostrava, previous: Bohemians 1905 v Baník Ostrava analysis
- Sparta Praha, previous: Sparta Praha vs Lillestrom prediction
- Sparta Praha, next: Olympiakos Piraeus vs Sparta Praha prediction