FK Jablonec vs Plzen preview
In the Czech Liga fixture between FK Jablonec and Plzen, the 1X2 probabilities show FK Jablonec at 36% and Plzen at 37%. The most likely scoreline predicted is 1-2, with a 7% chance. Both teams to score has a 54% probability, while Over 2.5 goals stands at 49%.
FK Jablonec's recent form is W-D-L-W-L-D, while Plzen has a mixed form of W-L-L-L-D-W. In their last three meetings, FK Jablonec has 0 wins, 2 draws, and Plzen has 1 win. The expected goals for FK Jablonec is 1.50 and for Plzen is 1.14. A potential factor that could affect the outcome is the recent form of both teams, particularly Plzen's inconsistency.
FK Jablonec vs Plzen: model vs market
| Source | FK Jablonec | Draw | Plzen |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 44% | 28% | 28% |
| Market | 33% | 26% | 41% |
| Published | 36% | 27% | 38% |
| Edge | +11% | +2% | -13% |
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.37, recorded — the top price across the 9 books we record, each at its own last update.
FK Jablonec vs Plzen odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Plzen, 6 snapshots since 2026-10-12.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| FK Jablonec | 2.70 | 2.84 | +0.14 |
| Draw | 3.50 | 3.53 | +0.03 |
| Plzen | 2.38 | 2.28 | -0.10 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
FK Jablonec and Plzen expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.65
- Attack rating (FK Jablonec / Plzen)
- 0.89 / 1.29
- Defence rating (FK Jablonec / Plzen)
- 0.71 / 1.18
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
FK Jablonec vs Plzen score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: FK Jablonec goals. Columns: Plzen goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
FK Jablonec vs Plzen goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 54%
- No goals (0–0)
- 8%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for FK Jablonec vs Plzen
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | FK Jablonec | 36% | 2.80 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.73 | |
| Plzen | 38% | 2.66 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 49% | 2.03 |
| Under 2.5 | 51% | 1.97 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 54% | 1.84 |
| No | 46% | 2.18 | |
| Double chance | 1X (FK Jablonec or draw) | 62% | 1.60 |
| 12 (either side) | 73% | 1.37 | |
| X2 (draw or Plzen) | 64% | 1.55 | |
| Handicap -1 | Plzen win by 2+ | 12% | 8.69 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 16% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
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FK Jablonec and Plzen recent form
FK Jablonec
2W 2D 2L
Plzen
2W 1D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
FK Jablonec at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-1-1
- Win rate
- 60%
- Goals for / match
- 1.60
- Goals against / match
- 0.80
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 5
- They have won 4 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They average 1.6 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 9 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
Plzen away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-2-1
- Win rate
- 25%
- Goals for / match
- 2.25
- Goals against / match
- 1.75
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 4
- They have won 2 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.9 goals per match.
- They average 2.2 goals per game on the road against 1.6 at home.
- They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).
League matches this season before kick-off: FK Jablonec at home only, Plzen away only.
FK Jablonec vs Plzen head-to-head
Last 3 meetings: FK Jablonec 0 · draws 2 · Plzen 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-17 | Plzen | 5-0 | FK Jablonec | Czech Liga |
| 2025-11-23 | FK Jablonec | 3-3 | Plzen | Czech Liga |
| 2025-07-26 | Plzen | 1-1 | FK Jablonec | Czech Liga |
Other Matchday 11 fixtures
- Slavia Praha vs Hradec Králové — team news & stats 2026-10-17
- Mlada Boleslav vs Teplice 2026-10-17
- Pardubice vs Zlin — team news & stats 2026-10-17
- Artis vs Bohemians 1905 2026-10-17
- Sigma Olomouc vs Slovan Liberec — team news & stats 2026-10-17
- Slovácko v Zbrojovka Brno — match page 2026-10-18
- Baník Ostrava vs Sparta Praha 2026-10-18
Before and after this match
- FK Jablonec, previous: Freiburg – FK Jablonec, 2026-10-15
- FK Jablonec, next: FK Jablonec vs Brighton: odds and pick
- Plzen, previous: Ferencvarosi TC v Plzen analysis
- Plzen, next: Plzen vs Levski Sofia: odds and pick