Ferencvarosi TC vs Plzen preview
In the UEFA Europa League fixture between Ferencvarosi TC and Plzen, the 1X2 probabilities show Ferencvarosi TC at 72%, draw at 17%, and Plzen at 11%. The most likely scoreline is 2-0, which aligns with the expected goals of 2.63 for Ferencvarosi TC and 0.95 for Plzen.
Ferencvarosi TC's recent form is strong with 4 wins and 2 draws, while Plzen has struggled, recording 3 losses and 2 draws in their last 5 matches. Although our model predicts a high chance of Over 2.5 goals at 69% and both teams to score at 58%, any unexpected performance from Plzen could challenge these outcomes.
Ferencvarosi TC vs Plzen: model vs market
| Source | Ferencvarosi TC | Draw | Plzen |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 72% | 17% | 11% |
| Market | 49% | 25% | 26% |
| Published | 55% | 23% | 22% |
| Edge | +23% | -8% | -15% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.63 vs 0.95.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- The market prices Ferencvarosi TC below the model: +23.5 percentage points of edge.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.99, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update.
Ferencvarosi TC vs Plzen odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Ferencvarosi TC, 3 snapshots since 2026-10-09.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ferencvarosi TC | 1.92 | 1.92 | +0.00 |
| Draw | 3.75 | 3.75 | +0.00 |
| Plzen | 3.64 | 3.64 | +0.00 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Ferencvarosi TC and Plzen expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.58
- Attack rating (Ferencvarosi TC / Plzen)
- 1.33 / 1.16
- Defence rating (Ferencvarosi TC / Plzen)
- 0.71 / 1.28
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Ferencvarosi TC vs Plzen score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Ferencvarosi TC goals. Columns: Plzen goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Ferencvarosi TC vs Plzen goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 58%
- No goals (0–0)
- 3%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Ferencvarosi TC vs Plzen
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Ferencvarosi TC | 55% | 1.82 |
| Draw | 23% | 4.34 | |
| Plzen | 22% | 4.54 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 69% | 1.44 |
| Under 2.5 | 31% | 3.26 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 58% | 1.74 |
| No | 42% | 2.36 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Ferencvarosi TC or draw) | 78% | 1.28 |
| 12 (either side) | 77% | 1.30 | |
| X2 (draw or Plzen) | 45% | 2.22 | |
| Handicap -1 | Ferencvarosi TC win by 2+ | 52% | 1.92 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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Ferencvarosi TC and Plzen recent form
Ferencvarosi TC
4W 2D 0L
Plzen
1W 2D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Ferencvarosi TC at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-1-0
- Win rate
- 75%
- Goals for / match
- 2.50
- Goals against / match
- 0.50
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 4
- They have won 6 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
- They average 2.5 goals per game at home against 1.5 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 8 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Plzen away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-0-1
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.00
- Goals against / match
- 3.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 1
League matches this season before kick-off: Ferencvarosi TC at home only, Plzen away only.
Ferencvarosi TC vs Plzen head-to-head
Last 1 meetings: Ferencvarosi TC 0 · draws 1 · Plzen 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-09-25 | Ferencvarosi TC | 1-1 | Plzen | UEFA Europa League |
Other League Stage - 2 fixtures
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Before and after this match
- Ferencvarosi TC, previous: Ferencvarosi TC – Debreceni VSC, 2026-10-10
- Plzen, previous: Plzen v Mlada Boleslav analysis