Plzen vs Levski Sofia Prediction & Betting Tips 22/10/2026

Plzen vs Levski Sofia preview

In the match between Plzen and Levski Sofia, the 1X2 probabilities show Levski Sofia at 42% to win, compared to Plzen's 30%. The most likely scoreline is 0-1, which aligns with expected goals of 1.19 for Plzen and 1.46 for Levski Sofia.

However, the prediction could be affected by Plzen's recent form, where they have recorded 2 wins and 3 losses in their last 5 matches. In contrast, Levski Sofia has shown stronger performance with 4 wins and 1 draw in the same period. While both teams to score stands at 55%, the match could still end with fewer goals than expected if Plzen's defense improves.

Plzen vs Levski Sofia: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	Plzen	Draw	Levski Sofia
Model	30%	28%	42%
Market	—	—	—
Published	30%	28%	42%
Edge	—	—	—

Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).

Plzen and Levski Sofia expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.19Plzen

1.46Levski Sofia

Total expected goals: 2.65
Attack rating (Plzen / Levski Sofia): 1.28 / 1.08
Defence rating (Plzen / Levski Sofia): 1.17 / 0.60

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Plzen vs Levski Sofia score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 8.3% 9.1% 7.5% 3.6% 1.8% 1 7.2% 13.5% 8.9% 4.3% 2.2% 2 5.0% 7.3% 5.3% 2.6% 1.3% 3 2.0% 2.9% 2.1% 1.0% 0.5% 4+ 0.8% 1.1% 0.8% 0.4% 0.2%

Rows: Plzen goals. Columns: Levski Sofia goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Plzen vs Levski Sofia goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 92%

Over 1.5 75%

Over 2.5 49%

Over 3.5 27%

Both teams to score: 55%
No goals (0–0): 8%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Plzen vs Levski Sofia

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	Plzen	30%	3.36
	Draw	28%	3.53
	Levski Sofia	42%	2.38
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	49%	2.02
	Under 2.5	51%	1.98
Both teams to score	Yes	55%	1.83
	No	45%	2.21
Double chance	1X (Plzen or draw)	58%	1.72
	12 (either side)	72%	1.39
	X2 (draw or Levski Sofia)	70%	1.42
Handicap -1	Levski Sofia win by 2+	21%	4.78
	Push (exactly one goal)	21%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

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Where to bet on this match in Kenya

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