Lillestrom vs Real Sociedad Prediction & Betting Tips 22/10/2026

Lillestrom vs Real Sociedad preview

In the UEFA Europa League fixture between Lillestrom and Real Sociedad, the 1X2 probabilities show Lillestrom at 64%, with a most likely scoreline of 2-1 (9%). Lillestrom's expected goals stand at 2.53, compared to Real Sociedad's 1.28. This suggests a strong attacking performance from Lillestrom.

However, the match could deviate from this prediction if Real Sociedad improves their form, as they recently recorded two wins in their last six matches. Additionally, both teams to score has a 67% probability, indicating that Real Sociedad might find the net despite their lower expected goals. The confidence grade for this match is B, reflecting moderate certainty in the forecast.

Lillestrom vs Real Sociedad: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	Lillestrom	Draw	Real Sociedad
Model	64%	19%	17%
Market	—	—	—
Published	64%	19%	17%
Edge	—	—	—

Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.53 vs 1.28.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).

Lillestrom and Real Sociedad expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

2.53Lillestrom

1.28Real Sociedad

Total expected goals: 3.82
Attack rating (Lillestrom / Real Sociedad): 1.21 / 0.99
Defence rating (Lillestrom / Real Sociedad): 1.13 / 1.35

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Lillestrom vs Real Sociedad score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 2.9% 2.1% 1.8% 0.8% 0.3% 1 4.9% 7.9% 4.6% 2.0% 0.8% 2 7.1% 9.1% 5.8% 2.5% 1.1% 3 6.0% 7.6% 4.9% 2.1% 0.9% 4+ 6.9% 8.9% 5.7% 2.4% 1.0%

Rows: Lillestrom goals. Columns: Real Sociedad goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Lillestrom vs Real Sociedad goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 97%

Over 1.5 90%

Over 2.5 73%

Over 3.5 53%

Both teams to score: 67%
No goals (0–0): 3%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Lillestrom vs Real Sociedad

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	Lillestrom	64%	1.57
	Draw	19%	5.21
	Real Sociedad	17%	5.88
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	73%	1.36
	Under 2.5	27%	3.76
Both teams to score	Yes	67%	1.49
	No	33%	3.06
Double chance	1X (Lillestrom or draw)	83%	1.21
	12 (either side)	81%	1.24
	X2 (draw or Real Sociedad)	36%	2.76
Handicap -1	Lillestrom win by 2+	43%	2.30
	Push (exactly one goal)	20%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

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Where to bet on this match in Kenya

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