Sandefjord vs Lillestrom preview
In the upcoming match between Sandefjord and Lillestrom, the 1X2 probabilities show Sandefjord at 42%, Lillestrom at 33%, and a draw at 25%. The most likely scoreline is 2-1 in favor of Sandefjord, with a 10% chance. The expected goals indicate Sandefjord at 2.25 and Lillestrom at 1.07, suggesting a potentially high-scoring game.
The model predicts a 64% chance for Over 2.5 goals and a 60% likelihood for both teams to score. However, Sandefjord's recent form shows 2 wins and 3 draws in their last 5 matches, while Lillestrom has 4 wins and 2 losses in the same period. This variance in form could impact the match outcome.
Sandefjord vs Lillestrom: model vs market
| Source | Sandefjord | Draw | Lillestrom |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 63% | 21% | 16% |
| Market | 35% | 26% | 39% |
| Published | 42% | 25% | 33% |
| Edge | +28% | -5% | -23% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.25 vs 1.07.
- The market prices Sandefjord below the model: +27.8 percentage points of edge.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.72, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update.
Sandefjord vs Lillestrom odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Sandefjord, 6 snapshots since 2026-10-12.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sandefjord | 2.65 | 2.63 | -0.02 |
| Draw | 3.55 | 3.56 | +0.01 |
| Lillestrom | 2.42 | 2.41 | -0.01 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Sandefjord and Lillestrom expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.31
- Attack rating (Sandefjord / Lillestrom)
- 1.25 / 1.07
- Defence rating (Sandefjord / Lillestrom)
- 0.73 / 1.00
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Sandefjord vs Lillestrom score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Sandefjord goals. Columns: Lillestrom goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Sandefjord vs Lillestrom goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 60%
- No goals (0–0)
- 5%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Sandefjord vs Lillestrom
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Sandefjord | 42% | 2.37 |
| Draw | 25% | 4.03 | |
| Lillestrom | 33% | 3.04 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 64% | 1.55 |
| Under 2.5 | 36% | 2.80 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 60% | 1.68 |
| No | 40% | 2.47 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Sandefjord or draw) | 67% | 1.49 |
| 12 (either side) | 75% | 1.33 | |
| X2 (draw or Lillestrom) | 58% | 1.73 | |
| Handicap -1 | Sandefjord win by 2+ | 41% | 2.43 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Sandefjord and Lillestrom recent form
Sandefjord
2W 3D 1L
Lillestrom
3W 1D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Sandefjord at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-5-3
- Win rate
- 27%
- Goals for / match
- 0.91
- Goals against / match
- 0.91
- Clean sheets
- 5 of 11
- They have won 6 of their 21 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 21 matches.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 21 matches.
Lillestrom away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 5-2-4
- Win rate
- 45%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.27
- Clean sheets
- 4 of 11
- They have won 10 of their 21 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They average 1.7 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 21 matches.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 21 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 4 penalties (75%).
- 40% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Sandefjord at home only, Lillestrom away only.
Sandefjord vs Lillestrom head-to-head
Last 1 meetings: Sandefjord 0 · draws 0 · Lillestrom 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-16 | Lillestrom | 3-1 | Sandefjord | Eliteserien |
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Before and after this match
- Sandefjord, previous: Rosenborg – Sandefjord, 2026-10-10
- Sandefjord, next: ODD Ballklubb v Sandefjord analysis
- Lillestrom, previous: Sparta Praha vs Lillestrom prediction
- Lillestrom, next: Lillestrom v Real Sociedad analysis