Valerenga vs Brann preview
In the upcoming match between Valerenga and Brann, the 1X2 probabilities show Valerenga at 41%, Brann at 35%, and a draw at 24%. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, with an 8% chance. Valerenga's expected goals stand at 2.28, while Brann's is 1.75, suggesting a strong attacking performance from Valerenga.
Both teams to score has a 75% likelihood, and Over 2.5 goals is at 77%. However, Valerenga's recent form of D-W-L-D-L-W contrasts with Brann's L-W-W-L-L-D, which could impact the match's outcome. The head-to-head record also favors Brann, with 2 wins in the last 3 encounters.
Valerenga vs Brann: model vs market
| Source | Valerenga | Draw | Brann |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 46% | 22% | 31% |
| Market | 38% | 24% | 38% |
| Published | 40% | 24% | 36% |
| Edge | +9% | -2% | -7% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.13 vs 1.74.
- The market prices Valerenga below the model: +8.7 percentage points of edge.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.60, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update.
Valerenga vs Brann odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Valerenga, 6 snapshots since 2026-10-12.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Valerenga | 2.46 | 2.46 | -0.00 |
| Draw | 3.83 | 3.80 | -0.04 |
| Brann | 2.56 | 2.46 | -0.11 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Valerenga and Brann expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.87
- Attack rating (Valerenga / Brann)
- 1.35 / 1.00
- Defence rating (Valerenga / Brann)
- 1.27 / 0.87
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Valerenga vs Brann score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Valerenga goals. Columns: Brann goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Valerenga vs Brann goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 73%
- No goals (0–0)
- 3%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Valerenga vs Brann
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Valerenga | 40% | 2.50 |
| Draw | 24% | 4.19 | |
| Brann | 36% | 2.77 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 74% | 1.35 |
| Under 2.5 | 26% | 3.88 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 73% | 1.36 |
| No | 27% | 3.77 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Valerenga or draw) | 64% | 1.57 |
| 12 (either side) | 76% | 1.31 | |
| X2 (draw or Brann) | 60% | 1.67 | |
| Handicap -1 | Valerenga win by 2+ | 28% | 3.63 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Valerenga and Brann recent form
Valerenga
1W 2D 3L
Brann
2W 1D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Valerenga at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-2-5
- Win rate
- 36%
- Goals for / match
- 1.82
- Goals against / match
- 1.73
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 11
- They have won 6 of their 21 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 21 matches.
- 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Brann away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-2-5
- Win rate
- 30%
- Goals for / match
- 1.90
- Goals against / match
- 1.60
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 10
- They have won 9 of their 21 league games this season, scoring 1.9 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 21 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 21 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 4 penalties (75%).
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Valerenga at home only, Brann away only.
Valerenga vs Brann head-to-head
Last 3 meetings: Valerenga 1 · draws 0 · Brann 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-26 | Brann | 2-3 | Valerenga | Eliteserien |
| 2025-09-13 | Brann | 3-2 | Valerenga | Eliteserien |
| 2025-05-03 | Valerenga | 2-4 | Brann | Eliteserien |
Other Matchday 24 fixtures
- Ham-Kam vs Bodo/Glimt — team news & stats 2026-10-17
- Kristiansund BK v Aalesund — match page 2026-10-17
- Viking v Fredrikstad — match page 2026-10-17
- Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Rosenborg 2026-10-18
- Molde v Start — match page 2026-10-18
- Sandefjord vs Lillestrom — team news & stats 2026-10-18
- Tromso vs KFUM Oslo — team news & stats 2026-10-18
Before and after this match
- Valerenga, previous: KFUM Oslo vs Valerenga prediction
- Valerenga, next: Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Valerenga: odds and pick
- Brann, previous: Brann – Lincoln Red Imps FC, 2026-10-15
- Brann, next: Kauno Žalgiris vs Brann prediction