Viking vs Fredrikstad preview
In the Eliteserien fixture between Viking and Fredrikstad, the 1X2 probabilities show Viking at 69% and Fredrikstad at 13%. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, which occurs with a 10% chance. Viking's expected goals stand at 2.00, while Fredrikstad's are just 1.06.
Viking's recent form includes 4 wins and 1 loss in their last 6 matches, while Fredrikstad has 2 wins and 3 draws in the same period. Although Viking has a strong head-to-head record with 3 wins against Fredrikstad, the confidence grade is C, indicating some uncertainty. This could affect the likelihood of outcomes like Over 2.5 goals at 59% or both teams to score at 57%.
Viking vs Fredrikstad: model vs market
| Source | Viking | Draw | Fredrikstad |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 58% | 23% | 18% |
| Market | 73% | 16% | 11% |
| Published | 69% | 18% | 13% |
| Edge | -14% | +7% | +7% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.00 vs 1.06.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.31, recorded — the top price across the 9 books we record, each at its own last update.
Viking vs Fredrikstad odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Viking, 6 snapshots since 2026-10-12.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Viking | 1.29 | 1.28 | -0.01 |
| Draw | 5.80 | 5.80 | +0.00 |
| Fredrikstad | 8.38 | 8.30 | -0.08 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Viking and Fredrikstad expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.06
- Attack rating (Viking / Fredrikstad)
- 1.55 / 0.98
- Defence rating (Viking / Fredrikstad)
- 0.79 / 0.72
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Viking vs Fredrikstad score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Viking goals. Columns: Fredrikstad goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Viking vs Fredrikstad goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 57%
- No goals (0–0)
- 6%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Viking vs Fredrikstad
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Viking | 69% | 1.45 |
| Draw | 18% | 5.60 | |
| Fredrikstad | 13% | 7.68 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 59% | 1.70 |
| Under 2.5 | 41% | 2.44 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 57% | 1.74 |
| No | 43% | 2.35 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Viking or draw) | 87% | 1.15 |
| 12 (either side) | 82% | 1.22 | |
| X2 (draw or Fredrikstad) | 31% | 3.24 | |
| Handicap -1 | Viking win by 2+ | 36% | 2.80 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
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Viking and Fredrikstad recent form
Viking
4W 1D 1L
Fredrikstad
2W 3D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Viking at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 10-0-0
- Win rate
- 100%
- Goals for / match
- 3.80
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 10
- They have won 16 of their 21 league games this season, scoring 2.6 goals per match.
- They average 3.8 goals per game at home against 1.5 on the road.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 21 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 9 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 7 penalties (57%).
- 37% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Fredrikstad away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-2-6
- Win rate
- 27%
- Goals for / match
- 1.09
- Goals against / match
- 1.91
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 11
- They have won 8 of their 21 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 21 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 21 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- 47% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Viking at home only, Fredrikstad away only.
Viking vs Fredrikstad head-to-head
Last 3 meetings: Viking 3 · draws 0 · Fredrikstad 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-25 | Fredrikstad | 1-2 | Viking | Eliteserien |
| 2025-11-23 | Fredrikstad | 0-1 | Viking | Eliteserien |
| 2025-06-22 | Viking | 3-0 | Fredrikstad | Eliteserien |
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Before and after this match
- Viking, previous: Viking vs Bayern Munich: odds and pick
- Viking, next: Aston Villa vs Viking prediction
- Fredrikstad, previous: Fredrikstad – Tromso, 2026-10-11
- Fredrikstad, next: Ranheim vs Fredrikstad: odds and pick