Updated

NM Cupen · Round of 32

Ranheim vs Fredrikstad

· EXTRA Arena, Trondheim· Referee S. Sletner

Full time2 – 5

Alin prediction was Fredrikstad to win

Cblended with market oddsCorrect

Predicted score 1 – 2

10% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
RanheimDrawFredrikstad

Ranheim vs Fredrikstad: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceRanheimDrawFredrikstad
Model23%23%54%
Market25%23%52%
Published24%23%53%
Edge0%0%+1%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.10 vs 1.32.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Ranheim vs Fredrikstad odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Fredrikstad, 4 snapshots since 2026-10-27.

Opened 1.75Now 1.75 +0.00
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Ranheim3.753.70-0.05
Draw4.004.00+0.00
Fredrikstad1.751.75+0.00

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Ranheim and Fredrikstad expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.32Ranheim
2.10Fredrikstad
Total expected goals
3.43
Attack rating (Ranheim / Fredrikstad)
1.18 / 0.74
Defence rating (Ranheim / Fredrikstad)
0.88 / 0.81

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Ranheim vs Fredrikstad score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 4.1% 5.9% 7.2% 5.0% 4.3% 1 3.4% 9.9% 9.5% 6.7% 5.7% 2 2.8% 6.0% 6.3% 4.4% 3.8% 3 1.3% 2.6% 2.8% 1.9% 1.7% 4+ 0.6% 1.2% 1.2% 0.9% 0.7%

Rows: Ranheim goals. Columns: Fredrikstad goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Ranheim vs Fredrikstad goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 96%
Over 1.5 87%
Over 2.5 67%
Over 3.5 45%
Both teams to score
65%
No goals (0–0)
4%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Ranheim vs Fredrikstad

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Ranheim24%4.12
Draw23%4.38
Fredrikstad53%1.89
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.567%1.50
Under 2.533%2.99
Both teams to scoreYes65%1.53
No35%2.89
Double chance1X (Ranheim or draw)47%2.12
12 (either side)77%1.30
X2 (draw or Fredrikstad)76%1.32
Handicap -1Fredrikstad win by 2+33%2.99
Push (exactly one goal)21%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Ranheim and Fredrikstad recent form

Ranheim 4W 1D 1L
Fredrikstad 1W 3D 2L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Fredrikstad away

Record (W-D-L)
2-0-0
Win rate
100%
Goals for / match
4.00
Goals against / match
0.50
Clean sheets
1 of 2

League matches this season before kick-off: Ranheim at home only, Fredrikstad away only.

Ranheim vs Fredrikstad head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: Ranheim 4 · draws 3 · Fredrikstad 3.

RanheimDrawsFredrikstad
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2023-09-23Ranheim1-2Fredrikstad1. Division
2023-07-02Fredrikstad4-0Ranheim1. Division
2022-08-14Fredrikstad1-1Ranheim1. Division
2022-05-29Ranheim3-2Fredrikstad1. Division
2021-11-27Fredrikstad3-1Ranheim1. Division
2021-07-02Ranheim1-1Fredrikstad1. Division
2017-10-24Fredrikstad1-2Ranheim1. Division
2017-05-13Ranheim1-0Fredrikstad1. Division
2016-10-02Fredrikstad1-7Ranheim1. Division
2016-06-29Ranheim0-0Fredrikstad1. Division

Other Round of 32 fixtures

Before and after this match