Pors Grenland vs Kongsvinger: model vs market
| Source | Pors Grenland | Draw | Kongsvinger |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 7% | 10% | 83% |
| Market | 21% | 21% | 58% |
| Published | 17% | 19% | 64% |
| Edge | -4% | -3% | +6% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 3.72 vs 1.13.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
- The market prices Kongsvinger below our published probability: +6.3 percentage points of edge.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.
Pors Grenland vs Kongsvinger odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Kongsvinger, 4 snapshots since 2026-10-27.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pors Grenland | 4.25 | 4.40 | +0.15 |
| Draw | 4.25 | 4.29 | +0.04 |
| Kongsvinger | 1.62 | 1.58 | -0.04 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Pors Grenland and Kongsvinger expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 4.86
- Attack rating (Pors Grenland / Kongsvinger)
- 0.95 / 1.39
- Defence rating (Pors Grenland / Kongsvinger)
- 0.83 / 0.85
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Pors Grenland vs Kongsvinger score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Pors Grenland goals. Columns: Kongsvinger goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Pors Grenland vs Kongsvinger goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 67%
- No goals (0–0)
- 1%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Pors Grenland vs Kongsvinger
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Pors Grenland | 17% | 5.79 |
| Draw | 19% | 5.39 | |
| Kongsvinger | 64% | 1.56 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 86% | 1.16 |
| Under 2.5 | 14% | 7.28 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 67% | 1.50 |
| No | 33% | 2.99 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Pors Grenland or draw) | 36% | 2.79 |
| 12 (either side) | 81% | 1.23 | |
| X2 (draw or Kongsvinger) | 83% | 1.21 | |
| Handicap -1 | Kongsvinger win by 2+ | 68% | 1.47 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 15% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Pors Grenland and Kongsvinger recent form
Pors Grenland
2W 0D 1L
Kongsvinger
4W 0D 2L
Last 3 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Pors Grenland at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-0-0
- Win rate
- 100%
- Goals for / match
- 2.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 1
Kongsvinger away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-0-0
- Win rate
- 100%
- Goals for / match
- 8.50
- Goals against / match
- 2.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 2
League matches this season before kick-off: Pors Grenland at home only, Kongsvinger away only.
Other Round of 32 fixtures
- Tromsdalen Uil v Lyn — match page 2026-10-28
- Asane vs hodd — team news & stats 2026-10-28
- Egersund vs Bryne 2026-10-28
- Kristiansund BK v Aalesund — match page 2026-10-28
- Molde vs Stromsgodset — team news & stats 2026-10-28
- Ranheim v Fredrikstad — match page 2026-10-28
- Rosenborg vs Ham-Kam 2026-10-28
Before and after this match
- Kongsvinger, previous: Sogndal vs Kongsvinger prediction
- Kongsvinger, next: Kongsvinger v Stabaek analysis