Sogndal vs Kongsvinger preview
In the match between Sogndal and Kongsvinger, the 1X2 probabilities show Kongsvinger at 64%, compared to Sogndal's 20%. The most likely scoreline is 1-3, which aligns with Kongsvinger's stronger expected goals of 3.25 against Sogndal's 1.91.
Kongsvinger comes into this match with solid recent form, winning 4 of their last 5 games, while Sogndal has struggled with 4 losses in their last 5 matches. The high probabilities for Over 2.5 goals at 89% and both teams to score at 82% indicate a likely high-scoring game. However, unexpected performances or defensive improvements from Sogndal could alter these outcomes.
Sogndal vs Kongsvinger: model vs market
| Source | Sogndal | Draw | Kongsvinger |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 18% | 16% | 66% |
| Market | 23% | 21% | 56% |
| Published | 22% | 20% | 59% |
| Edge | -5% | -5% | +10% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 3.22 vs 1.75.
- Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
- The market prices Kongsvinger below the model: +10.1 percentage points of edge.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.65, recorded — the top price across the 8 books we record, each at its own last update.
Sogndal vs Kongsvinger odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Kongsvinger, 4 snapshots since 2026-10-20.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sogndal | 3.84 | 4.04 | +0.20 |
| Draw | 4.45 | 4.40 | -0.05 |
| Kongsvinger | 1.66 | 1.65 | -0.01 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Sogndal and Kongsvinger expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 4.97
- Attack rating (Sogndal / Kongsvinger)
- 0.95 / 1.94
- Defence rating (Sogndal / Kongsvinger)
- 1.04 / 0.97
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Sogndal vs Kongsvinger score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Sogndal goals. Columns: Kongsvinger goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Sogndal vs Kongsvinger goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 80%
- No goals (0–0)
- 1%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Sogndal vs Kongsvinger
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Sogndal | 22% | 4.62 |
| Draw | 20% | 5.06 | |
| Kongsvinger | 59% | 1.71 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 87% | 1.15 |
| Under 2.5 | 13% | 7.85 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 80% | 1.25 |
| No | 20% | 4.93 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Sogndal or draw) | 41% | 2.42 |
| 12 (either side) | 80% | 1.25 | |
| X2 (draw or Kongsvinger) | 78% | 1.28 | |
| Handicap -1 | Kongsvinger win by 2+ | 48% | 2.07 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Sogndal and Kongsvinger recent form
Sogndal
0W 3D 3L
Kongsvinger
5W 0D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Sogndal at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 5-2-5
- Win rate
- 42%
- Goals for / match
- 1.92
- Goals against / match
- 1.75
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 12
- They have won 6 of their 26 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They average 1.9 goals per game at home against 1.4 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 26 matches.
- 40% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Kongsvinger away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 7-3-3
- Win rate
- 54%
- Goals for / match
- 2.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.46
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 13
- They have won 17 of their 26 league games this season, scoring 3.0 goals per match.
- They average 3.9 goals per game at home against 2.0 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 26 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 6 of 6 penalties (100%).
League matches this season before kick-off: Sogndal at home only, Kongsvinger away only.
Sogndal vs Kongsvinger head-to-head
Last 3 meetings: Sogndal 0 · draws 1 · Kongsvinger 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-03 | Kongsvinger | 5-1 | Sogndal | Norway 1. Division |
| 2025-09-28 | Sogndal | 2-2 | Kongsvinger | Norway 1. Division |
| 2025-06-14 | Kongsvinger | 4-2 | Sogndal | Norway 1. Division |
Other Matchday 28 fixtures
- Raufoss vs Ranheim — team news & stats 2026-10-24
- Strommen vs Stromsgodset 2026-10-25
- Haugesund v hodd — match page 2026-10-25
- Sandnes ULF vs Lyn — team news & stats 2026-10-25
- Stabaek vs ODD Ballklubb 2026-10-25
- Bryne vs Egersund — team news & stats 2026-10-25
- Moss vs Asane 2026-10-25
Before and after this match
- Sogndal, previous: Sogndal vs Raufoss: odds and pick
- Sogndal, next: Lillestrom vs Sogndal prediction
- Kongsvinger, previous: Kongsvinger vs Sandnes ULF: odds and pick
- Kongsvinger, next: Pors Grenland v Kongsvinger analysis