Sogndal vs Raufoss: model vs market
| Source | Sogndal | Draw | Raufoss |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 67% | 18% | 16% |
| Market | 64% | 20% | 16% |
| Published | 64% | 19% | 16% |
| Edge | +3% | -2% | -1% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.71 vs 1.30.
- The market prices Sogndal below the model: +2.8 percentage points of edge.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.
Sogndal vs Raufoss odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Sogndal, 6 snapshots since 2026-10-19.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sogndal | 1.54 | 1.44 | -0.10 |
| Draw | 4.45 | 4.60 | +0.15 |
| Raufoss | 4.80 | 5.62 | +0.83 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Sogndal and Raufoss expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 4.01
- Attack rating (Sogndal / Raufoss)
- 0.95 / 0.78
- Defence rating (Sogndal / Raufoss)
- 1.04 / 1.50
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Sogndal vs Raufoss score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Sogndal goals. Columns: Raufoss goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Sogndal vs Raufoss goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 69%
- No goals (0–0)
- 2%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Sogndal vs Raufoss
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Sogndal | 64% | 1.55 |
| Draw | 19% | 5.15 | |
| Raufoss | 16% | 6.20 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 76% | 1.31 |
| Under 2.5 | 24% | 4.23 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 69% | 1.46 |
| No | 31% | 3.18 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Sogndal or draw) | 84% | 1.19 |
| 12 (either side) | 81% | 1.24 | |
| X2 (draw or Raufoss) | 36% | 2.81 | |
| Handicap -1 | Sogndal win by 2+ | 47% | 2.14 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Sogndal and Raufoss recent form
Sogndal
0W 3D 3L
Raufoss
1W 1D 4L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Sogndal at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 5-2-5
- Win rate
- 42%
- Goals for / match
- 1.92
- Goals against / match
- 1.75
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 12
- They have won 6 of their 26 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They average 1.9 goals per game at home against 1.4 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 26 matches.
- 40% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Raufoss away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-1-10
- Win rate
- 15%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 3.62
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 13
- They have won 6 of their 26 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 26 matches.
- They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).
- 30% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Sogndal at home only, Raufoss away only.
Sogndal vs Raufoss head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Sogndal 3 · draws 4 · Raufoss 3.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-21 | Raufoss | 3-1 | Sogndal | Norway 1. Division |
| 2026-03-21 | Sogndal | 1-1 | Raufoss | Friendlies Clubs |
| 2025-10-22 | Raufoss | 1-3 | Sogndal | Norway 1. Division |
| 2025-05-31 | Sogndal | 2-2 | Raufoss | Norway 1. Division |
| 2024-09-02 | Raufoss | 4-1 | Sogndal | 1. Division |
| 2024-05-22 | Sogndal | 1-1 | Raufoss | 1. Division |
| 2024-03-16 | Raufoss | 1-5 | Sogndal | Friendlies Clubs |
| 2023-08-23 | Raufoss | 3-0 | Sogndal | 1. Division |
| 2023-05-06 | Sogndal | 2-1 | Raufoss | 1. Division |
| 2023-03-26 | Sogndal | 0-0 | Raufoss | Friendlies Clubs |
Before and after this match
- Sogndal, previous: Egersund vs Sogndal prediction
- Sogndal, next: Sogndal vs Kongsvinger prediction
- Raufoss, previous: hodd – Raufoss, 2026-10-18
- Raufoss, next: Raufoss vs Ranheim: odds and pick