Egersund vs Sogndal preview
Egersund faces Sogndal with a 40% chance for Sogndal to win compared to Egersund's 37%. The most likely scoreline is 1-2, with both teams expected to score, as indicated by the 73% probability for both teams to score and Over 2.5 goals.
Egersund's recent form shows 2 wins and 3 draws in their last 5 matches, while Sogndal has struggled with 6 matches without a win, recording 5 losses and 1 draw. This disparity in form could impact the match outcome, despite Sogndal's higher win probability. The confidence grade for this forecast is C, suggesting some uncertainty in the predictions.
Egersund vs Sogndal: model vs market
| Source | Egersund | Draw | Sogndal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 37% | 23% | 40% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 37% | 23% | 40% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Egersund and Sogndal expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.82
- Attack rating (Egersund / Sogndal)
- 0.96 / 0.98
- Defence rating (Egersund / Sogndal)
- 1.23 / 1.03
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Egersund vs Sogndal score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Egersund goals. Columns: Sogndal goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Egersund vs Sogndal goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 73%
- No goals (0–0)
- 3%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Egersund vs Sogndal
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Egersund | 37% | 2.70 |
| Draw | 23% | 4.38 | |
| Sogndal | 40% | 2.49 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 73% | 1.36 |
| Under 2.5 | 27% | 3.76 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 73% | 1.36 |
| No | 27% | 3.75 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Egersund or draw) | 60% | 1.67 |
| 12 (either side) | 77% | 1.30 | |
| X2 (draw or Sogndal) | 63% | 1.59 | |
| Handicap -1 | Sogndal win by 2+ | 22% | 4.46 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
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Egersund and Sogndal recent form
Egersund
2W 2D 2L
Sogndal
0W 2D 4L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Egersund at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 7-3-3
- Win rate
- 54%
- Goals for / match
- 1.69
- Goals against / match
- 1.31
- Clean sheets
- 5 of 13
- They have won 9 of their 25 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They have kept 7 clean sheets in 25 matches.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 25 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 2 of 4 penalties (50%).
Sogndal away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-3-9
- Win rate
- 8%
- Goals for / match
- 1.23
- Goals against / match
- 2.69
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 13
- They have won 6 of their 24 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They average 2.1 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 24 matches.
- 37% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Egersund at home only, Sogndal away only.
Egersund vs Sogndal head-to-head
Last 3 meetings: Egersund 1 · draws 0 · Sogndal 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-27 | Sogndal | 4-2 | Egersund | Norway 1. Division |
| 2025-10-25 | Sogndal | 0-1 | Egersund | Norway 1. Division |
| 2025-05-25 | Egersund | 0-2 | Sogndal | Norway 1. Division |
Other Matchday 27 fixtures
- Stromsgodset vs Haugesund 2026-10-18
- Ranheim vs Bryne — team news & stats 2026-10-18
- ODD Ballklubb vs Strommen 2026-10-18
- Kongsvinger v Sandnes ULF — match page 2026-10-18
- Asane vs Stabaek — team news & stats 2026-10-18
- hodd vs Raufoss 2026-10-18
- Lyn v Moss — match page 2026-10-18
Before and after this match
- Egersund, previous: Moss v Egersund analysis
- Egersund, next: Egersund vs Bryne: odds and pick
- Sogndal, previous: Sogndal vs ODD Ballklubb: odds and pick
- Sogndal, next: Lillestrom vs Sogndal prediction