Moss vs Egersund preview
In the upcoming match between Moss and Egersund, the 1X2 probabilities show Moss at 48%, Egersund at 30%, and a draw at 22%. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, with an 8% chance, while Over 2.5 goals is predicted at 73% and both teams to score at 72%.
Moss's recent form is L-D-W-L-W-L, while Egersund has a record of L-L-W-D-D-D. Egersund has won all three of the last head-to-head matches against Moss. This could affect the outcome if Moss fails to improve their form.
Moss vs Egersund: model vs market
| Source | Moss | Draw | Egersund |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 48% | 22% | 30% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 48% | 22% | 30% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.12 vs 1.66.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Moss and Egersund expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.78
- Attack rating (Moss / Egersund)
- 0.86 / 0.92
- Defence rating (Moss / Egersund)
- 1.12 / 1.31
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Moss vs Egersund score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Moss goals. Columns: Egersund goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Moss vs Egersund goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 72%
- No goals (0–0)
- 3%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Moss vs Egersund
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Moss | 48% | 2.10 |
| Draw | 22% | 4.45 | |
| Egersund | 30% | 3.35 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 73% | 1.37 |
| Under 2.5 | 27% | 3.68 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 72% | 1.39 |
| No | 28% | 3.59 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Moss or draw) | 70% | 1.43 |
| 12 (either side) | 78% | 1.29 | |
| X2 (draw or Egersund) | 52% | 1.91 | |
| Handicap -1 | Moss win by 2+ | 28% | 3.52 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
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Moss and Egersund recent form
Moss
2W 1D 3L
Egersund
1W 3D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Moss at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-4-6
- Win rate
- 17%
- Goals for / match
- 1.42
- Goals against / match
- 2.17
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 12
- They have won 7 of their 23 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
- 32% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Egersund away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-2-8
- Win rate
- 17%
- Goals for / match
- 1.42
- Goals against / match
- 2.75
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 12
- They have won 8 of their 23 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They have kept 7 clean sheets in 23 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 23 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 2 of 4 penalties (50%).
League matches this season before kick-off: Moss at home only, Egersund away only.
Moss vs Egersund head-to-head
Last 3 meetings: Moss 0 · draws 0 · Egersund 3.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-04 | Egersund | 3-0 | Moss | Norway 1. Division |
| 2025-10-22 | Egersund | 2-0 | Moss | Norway 1. Division |
| 2025-06-28 | Moss | 2-4 | Egersund | Norway 1. Division |
Other Matchday 26 fixtures
- Strommen v Asane — match page 2026-10-14
- Stabaek vs Sandnes ULF — team news & stats 2026-10-14
- Stromsgodset vs Kongsvinger 2026-10-14
- Haugesund v Lyn — match page 2026-10-14
- Sogndal vs ODD Ballklubb — team news & stats 2026-10-14
- Bryne vs Raufoss 2026-10-14
- hodd v Ranheim — match page 2026-10-14
Before and after this match
- Moss, previous: Raufoss vs Moss prediction
- Egersund, previous: Egersund – hodd, 2026-10-11