Updated

Norway 1. Division · Matchday 26

Strommen vs Asane

· Referee A. Al Fahad

Alin prediction Strommen to win

Cmodel only, no market odds

Predicted score 2 – 1

8% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
StrommenDrawAsane

Strommen vs Asane preview

In the upcoming match between Strommen and Asane, the 1X2 probabilities show Strommen at 52%, Asane at 28%, and a draw at 21%. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, with an 8% chance. Strommen's expected goals stand at 2.42, while Asane's is 1.79.

Strommen's recent form includes 2 wins, 2 draws, and 1 loss, while Asane has not won in their last 6 matches, recording 4 draws and 2 losses. With 79% for Over 2.5 goals and 77% for both teams to score, the match could see multiple goals. However, if Strommen's form dips or Asane improves, the expected outcomes could change.

Strommen vs Asane: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceStrommenDrawAsane
Model52%21%28%
Market———
Published52%21%28%
Edge———
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.42 vs 1.79.
  • Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).

Strommen and Asane expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

2.42Strommen
1.79Asane
Total expected goals
4.21
Attack rating (Strommen / Asane)
1.12 / 0.82
Defence rating (Strommen / Asane)
1.36 / 1.16

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Strommen vs Asane score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 2.1% 2.0% 2.4% 1.4% 0.9% 1 2.9% 7.1% 5.7% 3.4% 2.3% 2 4.4% 7.8% 7.0% 4.1% 2.8% 3 3.5% 6.3% 5.6% 3.4% 2.2% 4+ 3.8% 6.8% 6.0% 3.6% 2.4%

Rows: Strommen goals. Columns: Asane goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Strommen vs Asane goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 98%
Over 1.5 93%
Over 2.5 79%
Over 3.5 61%
Both teams to score
77%
No goals (0–0)
2%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Strommen vs Asane

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Strommen52%1.94
Draw21%4.86
Asane28%3.58
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.579%1.26
Under 2.521%4.79
Both teams to scoreYes77%1.31
No23%4.26
Double chance1X (Strommen or draw)72%1.39
12 (either side)79%1.26
X2 (draw or Asane)48%2.06
Handicap -1Strommen win by 2+33%3.07
Push (exactly one goal)19%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Where to bet on this match in Kenya

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Strommen and Asane recent form

Strommen 2W 2D 2L
Asane 0W 4D 2L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Strommen at home

Record (W-D-L)
4-3-5
Win rate
33%
Goals for / match
1.50
Goals against / match
2.25
Clean sheets
3 of 12
  • They have won 7 of their 23 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
  • They have kept 3 clean sheets in 23 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 7 of 23 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
  • 43% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Asane away

Record (W-D-L)
1-3-8
Win rate
8%
Goals for / match
0.92
Goals against / match
2.33
Clean sheets
0 of 12
  • They have won 5 of their 23 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
  • They average 1.9 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
  • They have kept 3 clean sheets in 23 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 6 of 23 matches.
  • 40% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

League matches this season before kick-off: Strommen at home only, Asane away only.

Strommen vs Asane head-to-head

Last 1 meetings: Strommen 1 · draws 0 · Asane 0.

StrommenDrawsAsane
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-04-19Asane4-5StrommenNorway 1. Division

Other Matchday 26 fixtures

Before and after this match

Prediction snapshot Strommen to win Predicted score 2 – 1 C Bet on Strommen