Raufoss vs Moss: model vs market
| Source | Raufoss | Draw | Moss |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 33% | 23% | 44% |
| Market | 28% | 25% | 47% |
| Published | 29% | 24% | 47% |
| Edge | +5% | -2% | -3% |
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.96, recorded — the top price across the 7 books we record, each at its own last update.
Raufoss vs Moss odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Moss, 2 snapshots since 2026-10-06.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raufoss | 3.30 | 3.30 | +0.00 |
| Draw | 3.74 | 3.74 | +0.00 |
| Moss | 1.94 | 1.94 | +0.00 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Raufoss and Moss expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.79
- Attack rating (Raufoss / Moss)
- 0.84 / 0.86
- Defence rating (Raufoss / Moss)
- 1.46 / 1.12
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Raufoss vs Moss score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Raufoss goals. Columns: Moss goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Raufoss vs Moss goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 73%
- No goals (0–0)
- 3%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Raufoss vs Moss
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Raufoss | 29% | 3.43 |
| Draw | 24% | 4.14 | |
| Moss | 47% | 2.14 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 73% | 1.37 |
| Under 2.5 | 27% | 3.69 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 73% | 1.38 |
| No | 27% | 3.66 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Raufoss or draw) | 53% | 1.87 |
| 12 (either side) | 76% | 1.32 | |
| X2 (draw or Moss) | 71% | 1.41 | |
| Handicap -1 | Moss win by 2+ | 26% | 3.92 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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| 2 |  |
First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
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| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Raufoss and Moss recent form
Raufoss
2W 0D 4L
Moss
2W 1D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Raufoss at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-1-7
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 1.25
- Goals against / match
- 1.67
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 12
- They have won 6 of their 22 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 22 matches.
- They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).
- 30% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Moss away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 5-0-7
- Win rate
- 42%
- Goals for / match
- 1.75
- Goals against / match
- 2.33
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 12
- They have won 7 of their 23 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
- 32% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Raufoss at home only, Moss away only.
Raufoss vs Moss head-to-head
Last 3 meetings: Raufoss 2 · draws 1 · Moss 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-26 | Moss | 1-2 | Raufoss | Norway 1. Division |
| 2025-11-08 | Moss | 1-1 | Raufoss | Norway 1. Division |
| 2025-04-01 | Raufoss | 3-2 | Moss | Norway 1. Division |
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