Sandnes ULF vs Haugesund: model vs market
| Source | Sandnes ULF | Draw | Haugesund |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 16% | 17% | 68% |
| Market | 22% | 21% | 57% |
| Published | 20% | 20% | 60% |
| Edge | -6% | -4% | +10% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.96 vs 1.44.
- Better recent form: 6 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
- The market prices Haugesund below the model: +10.3 percentage points of edge.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.62, recorded — the top price across the 7 books we record, each at its own last update.
Sandnes ULF vs Haugesund odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Haugesund, 4 snapshots since 2026-10-05.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sandnes ULF | 4.25 | 4.30 | +0.05 |
| Draw | 4.37 | 4.40 | +0.04 |
| Haugesund | 1.62 | 1.61 | -0.01 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Sandnes ULF and Haugesund expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 4.40
- Attack rating (Sandnes ULF / Haugesund)
- 0.99 / 1.62
- Defence rating (Sandnes ULF / Haugesund)
- 1.13 / 0.78
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Sandnes ULF vs Haugesund score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Sandnes ULF goals. Columns: Haugesund goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Sandnes ULF vs Haugesund goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 73%
- No goals (0–0)
- 2%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Sandnes ULF vs Haugesund
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Sandnes ULF | 20% | 4.99 |
| Draw | 20% | 5.02 | |
| Haugesund | 60% | 1.67 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 82% | 1.23 |
| Under 2.5 | 18% | 5.41 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 73% | 1.37 |
| No | 27% | 3.70 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Sandnes ULF or draw) | 40% | 2.50 |
| 12 (either side) | 80% | 1.25 | |
| X2 (draw or Haugesund) | 80% | 1.25 | |
| Handicap -1 | Haugesund win by 2+ | 49% | 2.04 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 2 |  |
First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 4 |  |
200% first deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Sandnes ULF and Haugesund recent form
Sandnes ULF
2W 2D 2L
Haugesund
6W 0D 0L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Sandnes ULF at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-2-6
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 1.58
- Goals against / match
- 1.75
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 12
- They have won 7 of their 23 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 23 matches.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 23 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- 35% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Haugesund away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 8-0-4
- Win rate
- 67%
- Goals for / match
- 3.08
- Goals against / match
- 2.17
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 12
- They have won 17 of their 23 league games this season, scoring 3.1 goals per match.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 23 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- They have converted 6 of 6 penalties (100%).
League matches this season before kick-off: Sandnes ULF at home only, Haugesund away only.
Sandnes ULF vs Haugesund head-to-head
Last 1 meetings: Sandnes ULF 0 · draws 0 · Haugesund 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-01 | Haugesund | 2-0 | Sandnes ULF | Norway 1. Division |
Other Matchday 25 fixtures
- Stabaek vs Strommen — team news & stats 2026-10-11
- ODD Ballklubb vs Bryne 2026-10-11
- Kongsvinger v Ranheim — match page 2026-10-11
- Asane vs Sogndal 2026-10-11
- Raufoss v Moss — match page 2026-10-11
- Egersund vs hodd — team news & stats 2026-10-11
- Lyn vs Stromsgodset 2026-10-11