Kongsvinger vs Ranheim: model vs market
| Source | Kongsvinger | Draw | Ranheim |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 69% | 13% | 17% |
| Market | 58% | 20% | 23% |
| Published | 61% | 18% | 21% |
| Edge | +11% | -6% | -5% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 3.93 vs 2.17.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.
- The market prices Kongsvinger below the model: +11.3 percentage points of edge.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.62, recorded — the top price across the 7 books we record, each at its own last update.
Kongsvinger vs Ranheim odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Kongsvinger, 2 snapshots since 2026-10-06.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kongsvinger | 1.60 | 1.60 | +0.00 |
| Draw | 4.70 | 4.70 | +0.00 |
| Ranheim | 4.09 | 4.09 | +0.00 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Kongsvinger and Ranheim expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 6.10
- Attack rating (Kongsvinger / Ranheim)
- 2.00 / 1.49
- Defence rating (Kongsvinger / Ranheim)
- 0.90 / 1.05
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Kongsvinger vs Ranheim score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Kongsvinger goals. Columns: Ranheim goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Kongsvinger vs Ranheim goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 87%
- No goals (0–0)
- 0%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Kongsvinger vs Ranheim
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Kongsvinger | 61% | 1.65 |
| Draw | 18% | 5.52 | |
| Ranheim | 21% | 4.69 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 94% | 1.06 |
| Under 2.5 | 6% | 17.35 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 87% | 1.15 |
| No | 13% | 7.74 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Kongsvinger or draw) | 79% | 1.27 |
| 12 (either side) | 82% | 1.22 | |
| X2 (draw or Ranheim) | 39% | 2.54 | |
| Handicap -1 | Kongsvinger win by 2+ | 53% | 1.88 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 16% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Kongsvinger and Ranheim recent form
Kongsvinger
4W 2D 0L
Ranheim
3W 2D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Kongsvinger at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 9-2-1
- Win rate
- 75%
- Goals for / match
- 3.75
- Goals against / match
- 1.75
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 12
- They have won 15 of their 23 league games this season, scoring 3.0 goals per match.
- They average 3.8 goals per game at home against 2.1 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 23 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 5 of 5 penalties (100%).
Ranheim away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-1-7
- Win rate
- 27%
- Goals for / match
- 2.00
- Goals against / match
- 2.73
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 11
- They have won 8 of their 23 league games this season, scoring 2.4 goals per match.
- They average 2.8 goals per game at home against 2.0 on the road.
- 44% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Kongsvinger at home only, Ranheim away only.
Kongsvinger vs Ranheim head-to-head
Last 3 meetings: Kongsvinger 0 · draws 2 · Ranheim 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-08 | Ranheim | 1-1 | Kongsvinger | Norway 1. Division |
| 2025-08-30 | Kongsvinger | 1-1 | Ranheim | Norway 1. Division |
| 2025-05-03 | Ranheim | 2-1 | Kongsvinger | Norway 1. Division |
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