Molde vs Stromsgodset: model vs market
| Source | Molde | Draw | Stromsgodset |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 11% | 16% | 73% |
| Market | 78% | 13% | 9% |
| Published | 61% | 14% | 25% |
| Edge | -17% | +1% | +16% |
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.
Molde vs Stromsgodset odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Molde, 5 snapshots since 2026-10-26.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Molde | 1.29 | 1.18 | -0.11 |
| Draw | 5.75 | 7.05 | +1.30 |
| Stromsgodset | 7.60 | 10.75 | +3.15 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Molde and Stromsgodset expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.80
- Attack rating (Molde / Stromsgodset)
- 1.52 / 1.23
- Defence rating (Molde / Stromsgodset)
- 0.70 / 0.49
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Molde vs Stromsgodset score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Molde goals. Columns: Stromsgodset goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Molde vs Stromsgodset goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 61%
- No goals (0–0)
- 3%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Molde vs Stromsgodset
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Molde | 61% | 1.63 |
| Draw | 14% | 7.19 | |
| Stromsgodset | 25% | 4.06 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 73% | 1.37 |
| Under 2.5 | 27% | 3.71 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 61% | 1.64 |
| No | 39% | 2.57 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Molde or draw) | 75% | 1.33 |
| 12 (either side) | 86% | 1.16 | |
| X2 (draw or Stromsgodset) | 39% | 2.59 | |
| Handicap -1 | Molde win by 2+ | 4% | 25.68 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 7% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Molde and Stromsgodset recent form
Molde
4W 1D 1L
Stromsgodset
5W 0D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Stromsgodset away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-0-0
- Win rate
- 100%
- Goals for / match
- 5.00
- Goals against / match
- 0.50
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 2
League matches this season before kick-off: Molde at home only, Stromsgodset away only.
Molde vs Stromsgodset head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Molde 6 · draws 2 · Stromsgodset 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-09-24 | Stromsgodset | 1-1 | Molde | NM Cupen |
| 2025-08-31 | Stromsgodset | 3-1 | Molde | Eliteserien |
| 2025-07-19 | Molde | 4-1 | Stromsgodset | Eliteserien |
| 2024-12-01 | Stromsgodset | 1-0 | Molde | Eliteserien |
| 2024-04-01 | Molde | 4-0 | Stromsgodset | Eliteserien |
| 2023-09-24 | Stromsgodset | 1-1 | Molde | Eliteserien |
| 2023-06-28 | Molde | 3-0 | Stromsgodset | NM Cupen |
| 2023-05-13 | Molde | 3-2 | Stromsgodset | Eliteserien |
| 2022-07-31 | Molde | 3-0 | Stromsgodset | Eliteserien |
| 2022-04-10 | Stromsgodset | 1-3 | Molde | Eliteserien |
Other Round of 32 fixtures
- Tromsdalen Uil v Lyn — match page 2026-10-28
- Asane vs hodd — team news & stats 2026-10-28
- Egersund vs Bryne 2026-10-28
- Kristiansund BK v Aalesund — match page 2026-10-28
- Pors Grenland vs Kongsvinger 2026-10-28
- Ranheim v Fredrikstad — match page 2026-10-28
- Rosenborg vs Ham-Kam 2026-10-28
Before and after this match
- Molde, previous: Molde – Fredrikstad, 2026-10-25
- Molde, next: Brann v Molde analysis
- Stromsgodset, previous: Strommen vs Stromsgodset prediction
- Stromsgodset, next: Stromsgodset vs Moss prediction