Kristiansund BK vs Aalesund: model vs market
| Source | Kristiansund BK | Draw | Aalesund |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 5% | 9% | 86% |
| Market | 43% | 25% | 32% |
| Published | 34% | 21% | 46% |
| Edge | -10% | -4% | +13% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 3.83 vs 0.98.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- The market prices Aalesund below our published probability: +13.5 percentage points of edge.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.
Kristiansund BK vs Aalesund odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Aalesund, 5 snapshots since 2026-10-26.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kristiansund BK | 2.15 | 2.14 | -0.01 |
| Draw | 3.80 | 3.73 | -0.07 |
| Aalesund | 2.80 | 2.87 | +0.07 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Kristiansund BK and Aalesund expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 4.81
- Attack rating (Kristiansund BK / Aalesund)
- 0.73 / 1.15
- Defence rating (Kristiansund BK / Aalesund)
- 1.03 / 0.96
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Kristiansund BK vs Aalesund score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Kristiansund BK goals. Columns: Aalesund goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Kristiansund BK vs Aalesund goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 61%
- No goals (0–0)
- 1%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Kristiansund BK vs Aalesund
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Kristiansund BK | 34% | 2.98 |
| Draw | 21% | 4.81 | |
| Aalesund | 46% | 2.19 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 86% | 1.17 |
| Under 2.5 | 14% | 7.02 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 61% | 1.63 |
| No | 39% | 2.59 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Kristiansund BK or draw) | 54% | 1.84 |
| 12 (either side) | 79% | 1.26 | |
| X2 (draw or Aalesund) | 66% | 1.50 | |
| Handicap -1 | Aalesund win by 2+ | 72% | 1.38 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 14% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Kristiansund BK and Aalesund recent form
Kristiansund BK
1W 1D 4L
Aalesund
3W 0D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Aalesund away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-0-0
- Win rate
- 100%
- Goals for / match
- 8.50
- Goals against / match
- 1.50
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 2
League matches this season before kick-off: Kristiansund BK at home only, Aalesund away only.
Kristiansund BK vs Aalesund head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Kristiansund BK 3 · draws 2 · Aalesund 5.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-17 | Kristiansund BK | 1-4 | Aalesund | Eliteserien |
| 2026-06-27 | Kristiansund BK | 0-3 | Aalesund | Friendlies Clubs |
| 2026-04-26 | Aalesund | 1-1 | Kristiansund BK | Eliteserien |
| 2026-01-30 | Aalesund | 1-0 | Kristiansund BK | Friendlies Clubs |
| 2025-03-23 | Kristiansund BK | 2-1 | Aalesund | Friendlies Clubs |
| 2024-03-24 | Kristiansund BK | 1-1 | Aalesund | Friendlies Clubs |
| 2024-02-16 | Aalesund | 1-3 | Kristiansund BK | Friendlies Clubs |
| 2023-04-02 | Aalesund | 1-0 | Kristiansund BK | Friendlies Clubs |
| 2022-10-30 | Kristiansund BK | 4-0 | Aalesund | Eliteserien |
| 2022-04-03 | Aalesund | 1-0 | Kristiansund BK | Eliteserien |
Other Round of 32 fixtures
- Tromsdalen Uil v Lyn — match page 2026-10-28
- Asane vs hodd — team news & stats 2026-10-28
- Egersund vs Bryne 2026-10-28
- Molde vs Stromsgodset — team news & stats 2026-10-28
- Pors Grenland vs Kongsvinger 2026-10-28
- Ranheim v Fredrikstad — match page 2026-10-28
- Rosenborg vs Ham-Kam 2026-10-28
Before and after this match
- Kristiansund BK, previous: Kristiansund BK v KFUM Oslo analysis
- Kristiansund BK, next: Sarpsborg 08 FF – Kristiansund BK, 2026-11-01
- Aalesund, previous: Sarpsborg 08 FF v Aalesund analysis
- Aalesund, next: Aalesund vs Sandefjord: odds and pick