Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Kristiansund BK preview
Sarpsborg 08 FF faces Kristiansund BK with a 64% probability of winning, while Kristiansund BK sits at 17%. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, which aligns with the expected goals of 2.41 for Sarpsborg 08 FF and 1.19 for Kristiansund BK. With a 70% chance of Over 2.5 goals and a 64% likelihood of both teams to score, there are strong indicators for a high-scoring match.
However, Sarpsborg 08 FF's recent form shows 2 wins in their last 6 matches, while Kristiansund BK has won 2 out of their last 6. Additionally, in their last 3 encounters, Sarpsborg 08 FF has not won, with 2 draws and 1 loss to Kristiansund BK. This could impact the expected outcome.
Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Kristiansund BK: model vs market
| Source | Sarpsborg 08 FF | Draw | Kristiansund BK |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 63% | 20% | 17% |
| Market | 62% | 22% | 17% |
| Published | 62% | 21% | 17% |
| Edge | 0% | 0% | 0% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.42 vs 1.21.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.55, recorded — the top price across the 7 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -3.9% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Kristiansund BK odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Sarpsborg 08 FF, 2 snapshots since 2026-10-26.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sarpsborg 08 FF | 1.51 | 1.51 | +0.00 |
| Draw | 4.30 | 4.30 | +0.00 |
| Kristiansund BK | 5.54 | 5.54 | +0.00 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Sarpsborg 08 FF and Kristiansund BK expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.63
- Attack rating (Sarpsborg 08 FF / Kristiansund BK)
- 0.96 / 0.95
- Defence rating (Sarpsborg 08 FF / Kristiansund BK)
- 0.92 / 1.39
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Kristiansund BK score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Sarpsborg 08 FF goals. Columns: Kristiansund BK goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Kristiansund BK goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 65%
- No goals (0–0)
- 3%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Kristiansund BK
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Sarpsborg 08 FF | 62% | 1.61 |
| Draw | 21% | 4.72 | |
| Kristiansund BK | 17% | 5.96 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 70% | 1.43 |
| Under 2.5 | 30% | 3.35 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 65% | 1.55 |
| No | 35% | 2.83 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Sarpsborg 08 FF or draw) | 83% | 1.20 |
| 12 (either side) | 79% | 1.27 | |
| X2 (draw or Kristiansund BK) | 38% | 2.63 | |
| Handicap -1 | Sarpsborg 08 FF win by 2+ | 42% | 2.36 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Sarpsborg 08 FF and Kristiansund BK recent form
Sarpsborg 08 FF
3W 1D 2L
Kristiansund BK
1W 1D 4L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Sarpsborg 08 FF at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 5-3-4
- Win rate
- 42%
- Goals for / match
- 1.17
- Goals against / match
- 1.33
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 12
- They have won 7 of their 23 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 23 matches.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 23 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 5 penalties (80%).
Kristiansund BK away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-2-9
- Win rate
- 8%
- Goals for / match
- 0.75
- Goals against / match
- 2.42
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 12
- They have won 5 of their 23 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They average 1.3 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 23 matches.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 23 matches.
- 45% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Sarpsborg 08 FF at home only, Kristiansund BK away only.
Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Kristiansund BK head-to-head
Last 3 meetings: Sarpsborg 08 FF 0 · draws 2 · Kristiansund BK 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-18 | Kristiansund BK | 0-0 | Sarpsborg 08 FF | Eliteserien |
| 2025-08-25 | Sarpsborg 08 FF | 0-1 | Kristiansund BK | Eliteserien |
| 2025-07-13 | Kristiansund BK | 0-0 | Sarpsborg 08 FF | Eliteserien |
Other Matchday 25 fixtures
- Bodo/Glimt v Viking — match page 2026-10-30
- Fredrikstad vs Rosenborg 2026-10-31
- Aalesund v Sandefjord — match page 2026-10-31
- Brann vs Molde — team news & stats 2026-11-01
- Start vs Lillestrom 2026-11-01
- KFUM Oslo vs Ham-Kam — team news & stats 2026-11-01
- Valerenga vs Tromso 2026-11-01
Before and after this match
- Sarpsborg 08 FF, previous: Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Valerenga: odds and pick
- Kristiansund BK, previous: Kristiansund BK vs Aalesund prediction