Valerenga vs Tromso preview
In the match between Valerenga and Tromso, the model gives Valerenga a 43% chance to win, while Tromso sits at 33%. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, with an 8% probability. Valerenga has an expected goals figure of 2.61, compared to Tromso's 1.60, indicating a strong offensive performance.
However, recent form shows Valerenga with two wins in their last six matches, while Tromso has also struggled, with only one win in their last six. This could affect the outcome, as both teams have shown inconsistency. Additionally, the model predicts a high likelihood of Over 2.5 goals at 79% and both teams to score at 75%, which could change if either defense performs better than expected.
Valerenga vs Tromso: model vs market
| Source | Valerenga | Draw | Tromso |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 59% | 19% | 22% |
| Market | 38% | 25% | 37% |
| Published | 43% | 24% | 33% |
| Edge | +5% | -2% | -4% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.61 vs 1.60.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
- The market prices Valerenga below our published probability: +5.2 percentage points of edge.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.52, recorded — the top price across the 7 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +8.3% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Valerenga vs Tromso odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Valerenga, 2 snapshots since 2026-10-26.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Valerenga | 2.49 | 2.49 | +0.00 |
| Draw | 3.70 | 3.70 | +0.00 |
| Tromso | 2.55 | 2.55 | +0.00 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Valerenga and Tromso expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 4.21
- Attack rating (Valerenga / Tromso)
- 1.32 / 1.06
- Defence rating (Valerenga / Tromso)
- 1.09 / 1.09
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Valerenga vs Tromso score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Valerenga goals. Columns: Tromso goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Valerenga vs Tromso goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 75%
- No goals (0–0)
- 2%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Valerenga vs Tromso
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Valerenga | 43% | 2.33 |
| Draw | 24% | 4.19 | |
| Tromso | 33% | 3.02 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 79% | 1.26 |
| Under 2.5 | 21% | 4.80 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 75% | 1.34 |
| No | 25% | 3.94 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Valerenga or draw) | 67% | 1.50 |
| 12 (either side) | 76% | 1.31 | |
| X2 (draw or Tromso) | 57% | 1.75 | |
| Handicap -1 | Valerenga win by 2+ | 39% | 2.55 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Valerenga and Tromso recent form
Valerenga
3W 1D 2L
Tromso
2W 2D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Valerenga at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 5-2-5
- Win rate
- 42%
- Goals for / match
- 1.92
- Goals against / match
- 1.67
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 12
- They have won 7 of their 23 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- They average 1.9 goals per game at home against 1.4 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 23 matches.
- They have converted 0 of 3 penalties (0%).
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Tromso away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-3-5
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 1.75
- Goals against / match
- 2.00
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 12
- They have won 11 of their 23 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
- They have kept 9 clean sheets in 23 matches.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 23 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Valerenga at home only, Tromso away only.
Valerenga vs Tromso head-to-head
Last 3 meetings: Valerenga 1 · draws 0 · Tromso 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-11 | Tromso | 4-0 | Valerenga | Eliteserien |
| 2025-10-04 | Valerenga | 1-0 | Tromso | Eliteserien |
| 2025-05-31 | Tromso | 2-1 | Valerenga | Eliteserien |
Other Matchday 25 fixtures
- Bodo/Glimt v Viking — match page 2026-10-30
- Fredrikstad vs Rosenborg 2026-10-31
- Aalesund v Sandefjord — match page 2026-10-31
- Brann vs Molde — team news & stats 2026-11-01
- Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Kristiansund BK — team news & stats 2026-11-01
- Start vs Lillestrom 2026-11-01
- KFUM Oslo vs Ham-Kam — team news & stats 2026-11-01
Before and after this match
- Valerenga, previous: Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Valerenga: odds and pick
- Tromso, previous: Tromso vs Haugesund: odds and pick