Fredrikstad vs Rosenborg preview
In the Eliteserien fixture between Fredrikstad and Rosenborg, the 1X2 probabilities show Rosenborg with a 52% chance to win compared to Fredrikstad's 24%. The most likely scoreline is 1-2, which aligns with expected goals of 1.37 for Fredrikstad and 2.06 for Rosenborg.
Rosenborg's recent form is strong, with 6 consecutive matches without a loss, while Fredrikstad has only 1 win in their last 6 games. Both teams to score has a 66% likelihood, and Over 2.5 goals sits at 67%. However, if Fredrikstad can improve their performance at home, the outcome could differ from the model's prediction.
Fredrikstad vs Rosenborg: model vs market
| Source | Fredrikstad | Draw | Rosenborg |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 15% | 18% | 67% |
| Market | 25% | 25% | 51% |
| Published | 22% | 23% | 55% |
| Edge | -3% | -2% | +4% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.60 vs 1.18.
- Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- The market prices Rosenborg below our published probability: +4.1 percentage points of edge.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.89, recorded — the top price across the 7 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +3.4% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Fredrikstad vs Rosenborg odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Rosenborg, 3 snapshots since 2026-10-25.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fredrikstad | 3.27 | 3.80 | +0.52 |
| Draw | 3.69 | 3.78 | +0.09 |
| Rosenborg | 2.07 | 1.85 | -0.22 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Fredrikstad and Rosenborg expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.79
- Attack rating (Fredrikstad / Rosenborg)
- 0.97 / 1.78
- Defence rating (Fredrikstad / Rosenborg)
- 1.06 / 0.68
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Fredrikstad vs Rosenborg score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Fredrikstad goals. Columns: Rosenborg goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Fredrikstad vs Rosenborg goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 65%
- No goals (0–0)
- 3%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Fredrikstad vs Rosenborg
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Fredrikstad | 22% | 4.52 |
| Draw | 23% | 4.32 | |
| Rosenborg | 55% | 1.83 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 73% | 1.37 |
| Under 2.5 | 27% | 3.69 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 65% | 1.54 |
| No | 35% | 2.85 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Fredrikstad or draw) | 45% | 2.21 |
| 12 (either side) | 77% | 1.30 | |
| X2 (draw or Rosenborg) | 78% | 1.28 | |
| Handicap -1 | Rosenborg win by 2+ | 47% | 2.14 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Fredrikstad and Rosenborg recent form
Fredrikstad
1W 3D 2L
Rosenborg
5W 1D 0L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Fredrikstad at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 5-3-3
- Win rate
- 45%
- Goals for / match
- 1.27
- Goals against / match
- 1.09
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 11
- They have won 8 of their 23 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 23 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 23 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- 42% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Rosenborg away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 5-1-6
- Win rate
- 42%
- Goals for / match
- 1.50
- Goals against / match
- 1.42
- Clean sheets
- 5 of 12
- They have won 11 of their 23 league games this season, scoring 1.9 goals per match.
- They average 2.3 goals per game at home against 1.4 on the road.
- They have kept 8 clean sheets in 23 matches.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 23 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 5 penalties (80%).
League matches this season before kick-off: Fredrikstad at home only, Rosenborg away only.
Fredrikstad vs Rosenborg head-to-head
Last 3 meetings: Fredrikstad 0 · draws 0 · Rosenborg 3.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-27 | Rosenborg | 4-0 | Fredrikstad | Eliteserien |
| 2025-05-28 | Fredrikstad | 0-2 | Rosenborg | Eliteserien |
| 2025-04-05 | Rosenborg | 1-0 | Fredrikstad | Eliteserien |
Other Matchday 25 fixtures
- Bodo/Glimt v Viking — match page 2026-10-30
- Aalesund v Sandefjord — match page 2026-10-31
- Brann vs Molde — team news & stats 2026-11-01
- Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Kristiansund BK — team news & stats 2026-11-01
- Start vs Lillestrom 2026-11-01
- KFUM Oslo vs Ham-Kam — team news & stats 2026-11-01
- Valerenga vs Tromso 2026-11-01
Before and after this match
- Fredrikstad, previous: Ranheim vs Fredrikstad: odds and pick
- Rosenborg, previous: Rosenborg – Ham-Kam, 2026-10-28