Start vs Lillestrom preview
In the Eliteserien fixture between Start and Lillestrom, the 1X2 probabilities show Start at 37% and Lillestrom at 38%. The most likely scoreline from our model is 1-2, which aligns with Lillestrom's recent dominance, having won all 3 of their last head-to-head matches against Start.
Our model predicts a high chance of goals, with Over 2.5 goals at 76% and both teams to score at 75%. However, Start's inconsistency, reflected in their recent form of W-L-L-W-L-W, could impact the outcome. If they perform poorly, the expected goals of 2.11 for Start could fall short against Lillestrom's 1.87.
Start vs Lillestrom: model vs market
| Source | Start | Draw | Lillestrom |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 44% | 22% | 34% |
| Market | 35% | 26% | 39% |
| Published | 37% | 25% | 38% |
| Edge | +2% | -1% | -1% |
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.42, recorded — the top price across the 7 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -7.9% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Start vs Lillestrom odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Lillestrom, 2 snapshots since 2026-10-26.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Start | 2.70 | 2.70 | +0.00 |
| Draw | 3.64 | 3.64 | +0.00 |
| Lillestrom | 2.39 | 2.39 | +0.00 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Start and Lillestrom expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.97
- Attack rating (Start / Lillestrom)
- 1.04 / 1.07
- Defence rating (Start / Lillestrom)
- 1.26 / 1.12
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Start vs Lillestrom score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Start goals. Columns: Lillestrom goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Start vs Lillestrom goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 75%
- No goals (0–0)
- 3%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Start vs Lillestrom
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Start | 37% | 2.70 |
| Draw | 25% | 4.02 | |
| Lillestrom | 38% | 2.63 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 76% | 1.32 |
| Under 2.5 | 24% | 4.13 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 75% | 1.33 |
| No | 25% | 4.00 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Start or draw) | 62% | 1.61 |
| 12 (either side) | 75% | 1.33 | |
| X2 (draw or Lillestrom) | 63% | 1.59 | |
| Handicap -1 | Lillestrom win by 2+ | 18% | 5.48 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 16% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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| 2 |  |
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| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Start and Lillestrom recent form
Start
3W 0D 3L
Lillestrom
3W 2D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Start at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-3-5
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 1.25
- Goals against / match
- 1.58
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 12
- They have won 4 of their 23 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 23 matches.
- They have converted 1 of 3 penalties (33%).
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Lillestrom away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 6-2-4
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 1.08
- Goals against / match
- 1.17
- Clean sheets
- 5 of 12
- They have won 11 of their 23 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They average 1.7 goals per game at home against 1.1 on the road.
- They have kept 7 clean sheets in 23 matches.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 23 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 4 penalties (75%).
- 41% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Start at home only, Lillestrom away only.
Start vs Lillestrom head-to-head
Last 3 meetings: Start 0 · draws 0 · Lillestrom 3.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-11 | Lillestrom | 3-1 | Start | Eliteserien |
| 2025-08-16 | Lillestrom | 3-0 | Start | Norway 1. Division |
| 2025-07-26 | Start | 0-3 | Lillestrom | Norway 1. Division |
Other Matchday 25 fixtures
- Bodo/Glimt v Viking — match page 2026-10-30
- Fredrikstad vs Rosenborg 2026-10-31
- Aalesund v Sandefjord — match page 2026-10-31
- Brann vs Molde — team news & stats 2026-11-01
- Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Kristiansund BK — team news & stats 2026-11-01
- KFUM Oslo vs Ham-Kam — team news & stats 2026-11-01
- Valerenga vs Tromso 2026-11-01
Before and after this match
- Start, previous: Start vs Sandefjord: odds and pick
- Lillestrom, previous: Lillestrom vs Sogndal prediction
- Lillestrom, next: Lillestrom vs Plzen: odds and pick