Aalesund vs Sandefjord preview
Aalesund faces Sandefjord with a 46% chance of winning compared to Sandefjord's 34%. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, which our model predicts at 7%. Aalesund has an expected goals figure of 2.36, while Sandefjord is at 2.02.
Both teams to score stands at 79%, and Over 2.5 goals is at 81%. Aalesund's recent form shows 3 wins and 3 losses, while Sandefjord has 2 wins, 2 draws, and 2 losses. The confidence grade is C, indicating some uncertainty. Aalesund has not won against Sandefjord in their last meeting, which could affect the outcome.
Aalesund vs Sandefjord: model vs market
| Source | Aalesund | Draw | Sandefjord |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 46% | 22% | 32% |
| Market | 48% | 24% | 28% |
| Published | 47% | 24% | 29% |
| Edge | -1% | -1% | +1% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.16 vs 1.82.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.97, recorded — the top price across the 7 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -6.5% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Aalesund vs Sandefjord odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Aalesund, 3 snapshots since 2026-10-25.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aalesund | 1.96 | 1.95 | -0.01 |
| Draw | 3.94 | 3.86 | -0.08 |
| Sandefjord | 3.38 | 3.40 | +0.02 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Aalesund and Sandefjord expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.98
- Attack rating (Aalesund / Sandefjord)
- 1.55 / 1.03
- Defence rating (Aalesund / Sandefjord)
- 1.28 / 0.77
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Aalesund vs Sandefjord score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Aalesund goals. Columns: Sandefjord goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Aalesund vs Sandefjord goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 75%
- No goals (0–0)
- 3%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Aalesund vs Sandefjord
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Aalesund | 47% | 2.11 |
| Draw | 24% | 4.22 | |
| Sandefjord | 29% | 3.47 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 76% | 1.32 |
| Under 2.5 | 24% | 4.14 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 75% | 1.34 |
| No | 25% | 3.97 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Aalesund or draw) | 71% | 1.40 |
| 12 (either side) | 76% | 1.31 | |
| X2 (draw or Sandefjord) | 53% | 1.90 | |
| Handicap -1 | Aalesund win by 2+ | 27% | 3.70 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Aalesund and Sandefjord recent form
Aalesund
3W 0D 3L
Sandefjord
2W 1D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Aalesund at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-6-4
- Win rate
- 17%
- Goals for / match
- 2.00
- Goals against / match
- 2.50
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 12
- They have won 5 of their 23 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 1.4 on the road.
- 35% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Sandefjord away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-1-8
- Win rate
- 25%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.58
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 12
- They have won 6 of their 23 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 23 matches.
- They have failed to score in 8 of 23 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Aalesund at home only, Sandefjord away only.
Aalesund vs Sandefjord head-to-head
Last 1 meetings: Aalesund 0 · draws 0 · Sandefjord 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-03 | Sandefjord | 1-0 | Aalesund | Eliteserien |
Other Matchday 25 fixtures
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- Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Kristiansund BK — team news & stats 2026-11-01
- Start vs Lillestrom 2026-11-01
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Before and after this match
- Aalesund, previous: Kristiansund BK vs Aalesund prediction
- Sandefjord, previous: ODD Ballklubb v Sandefjord analysis