Sandefjord vs Molde preview
In the Eliteserien match between Sandefjord and Molde, the 1X2 probabilities show Molde at 53% to win, compared to Sandefjord's 27%. The most likely scoreline from our model is 1-2, with a 7% chance. With expected goals of 1.97 for Sandefjord and 2.70 for Molde, it suggests a competitive match.
The model indicates a high likelihood of Over 2.5 goals at 84% and both teams to score at 81%. However, Sandefjord's recent form includes 2 wins in their last 5 matches, which could challenge Molde's expectations. The confidence grade is C, indicating some uncertainty in the outcome.
Sandefjord vs Molde: model vs market
| Source | Sandefjord | Draw | Molde |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 27% | 19% | 53% |
| Market | 24% | 22% | 54% |
| Published | 25% | 21% | 54% |
| Edge | +1% | -1% | 0% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.70 vs 1.96.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.79, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -3.7% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Sandefjord vs Molde odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Molde, 10 snapshots since 2026-11-02.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sandefjord | 3.90 | 3.90 | +0.00 |
| Draw | 4.30 | 4.22 | -0.08 |
| Molde | 1.71 | 1.73 | +0.02 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Sandefjord and Molde expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 4.66
- Attack rating (Sandefjord / Molde)
- 1.13 / 2.02
- Defence rating (Sandefjord / Molde)
- 0.96 / 0.96
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Sandefjord vs Molde score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Sandefjord goals. Columns: Molde goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Sandefjord vs Molde goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 81%
- No goals (0–0)
- 1%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Sandefjord vs Molde
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Sandefjord | 25% | 4.03 |
| Draw | 21% | 4.68 | |
| Molde | 54% | 1.86 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 84% | 1.18 |
| Under 2.5 | 16% | 6.41 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 81% | 1.24 |
| No | 19% | 5.18 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Sandefjord or draw) | 46% | 2.16 |
| 12 (either side) | 79% | 1.27 | |
| X2 (draw or Molde) | 75% | 1.33 | |
| Handicap -1 | Molde win by 2+ | 35% | 2.84 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Sandefjord and Molde recent form
Sandefjord
2W 1D 3L
Molde
3W 1D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Sandefjord at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-5-4
- Win rate
- 25%
- Goals for / match
- 0.83
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 5 of 12
- They have won 6 of their 24 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 24 matches.
- They have failed to score in 9 of 24 matches.
Molde away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-3-5
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 2.00
- Goals against / match
- 2.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 12
- They have won 13 of their 24 league games this season, scoring 2.4 goals per match.
- They average 2.7 goals per game at home against 2.0 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 24 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Sandefjord at home only, Molde away only.
Sandefjord vs Molde head-to-head
Last 3 meetings: Sandefjord 2 · draws 0 · Molde 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-30 | Molde | 2-1 | Sandefjord | Eliteserien |
| 2025-10-19 | Molde | 1-3 | Sandefjord | Eliteserien |
| 2025-04-06 | Sandefjord | 3-0 | Molde | Eliteserien |
Other Matchday 26 fixtures
- Kristiansund BK v Valerenga — match page 2026-11-07
- Rosenborg v Start — match page 2026-11-07
- Tromso vs Bodo/Glimt 2026-11-08
- Lillestrom vs Aalesund — team news & stats 2026-11-08
- Viking vs KFUM Oslo 2026-11-08
- Ham-Kam vs Sarpsborg 08 FF — team news & stats 2026-11-08
- Fredrikstad v Brann — match page 2026-11-08
Before and after this match
- Sandefjord, previous: Aalesund vs Sandefjord: odds and pick
- Molde, previous: Brann v Molde analysis