Lillestrom vs Aalesund preview
In the upcoming match between Lillestrom and Aalesund, the 1X2 probabilities show Lillestrom at 42% and Aalesund at 38%. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, with an 85% chance of Over 2.5 goals and an 83% chance for both teams to score. Lillestrom has an expected goals figure of 2.42, while Aalesund is at 2.32.
Lillestrom's recent form includes 3 wins and 2 draws, while Aalesund has 4 wins and 2 losses in their last 6 matches. A potential factor that could influence the outcome is Aalesund's recent performance, as they have shown inconsistency. The confidence grade for this match is C, indicating some uncertainty in the predictions.
Lillestrom vs Aalesund: model vs market
| Source | Lillestrom | Draw | Aalesund |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 40% | 21% | 38% |
| Market | 53% | 22% | 25% |
| Published | 50% | 22% | 28% |
| Edge | -3% | 0% | +3% |
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.82, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -9.6% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Lillestrom vs Aalesund odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Lillestrom, 10 snapshots since 2026-11-02.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lillestrom | 1.80 | 1.75 | -0.05 |
| Draw | 4.22 | 4.20 | -0.02 |
| Aalesund | 3.60 | 3.70 | +0.10 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Lillestrom and Aalesund expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 4.21
- Attack rating (Lillestrom / Aalesund)
- 0.96 / 1.54
- Defence rating (Lillestrom / Aalesund)
- 0.97 / 1.22
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Lillestrom vs Aalesund score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Lillestrom goals. Columns: Aalesund goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Lillestrom vs Aalesund goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 78%
- No goals (0–0)
- 2%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Lillestrom vs Aalesund
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Lillestrom | 50% | 2.01 |
| Draw | 22% | 4.56 | |
| Aalesund | 28% | 3.52 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 79% | 1.26 |
| Under 2.5 | 21% | 4.78 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 78% | 1.29 |
| No | 22% | 4.49 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Lillestrom or draw) | 72% | 1.40 |
| 12 (either side) | 78% | 1.28 | |
| X2 (draw or Aalesund) | 50% | 1.99 | |
| Handicap -1 | Lillestrom win by 2+ | 23% | 4.33 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 17% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Lillestrom and Aalesund recent form
Lillestrom
4W 0D 2L
Aalesund
3W 0D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Lillestrom at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 6-1-5
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 1.83
- Goals against / match
- 1.58
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 12
- They have won 12 of their 24 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 1.1 on the road.
- They have kept 7 clean sheets in 24 matches.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 24 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 4 penalties (75%).
- 40% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Aalesund away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-3-6
- Win rate
- 25%
- Goals for / match
- 1.33
- Goals against / match
- 1.92
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 12
- They have won 5 of their 24 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 1.3 on the road.
- 34% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Lillestrom at home only, Aalesund away only.
Lillestrom vs Aalesund head-to-head
Last 3 meetings: Lillestrom 2 · draws 1 · Aalesund 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-15 | Aalesund | 1-3 | Lillestrom | Eliteserien |
| 2025-08-10 | Lillestrom | 5-1 | Aalesund | Norway 1. Division |
| 2025-03-31 | Aalesund | 2-2 | Lillestrom | Norway 1. Division |
Other Matchday 26 fixtures
- Kristiansund BK v Valerenga — match page 2026-11-07
- Rosenborg v Start — match page 2026-11-07
- Tromso vs Bodo/Glimt 2026-11-08
- Sandefjord vs Molde — team news & stats 2026-11-08
- Viking vs KFUM Oslo 2026-11-08
- Ham-Kam vs Sarpsborg 08 FF — team news & stats 2026-11-08
- Fredrikstad v Brann — match page 2026-11-08
Before and after this match
- Lillestrom, previous: Lillestrom vs Plzen: odds and pick
- Lillestrom, next: Lyon vs Lillestrom: odds and pick
- Aalesund, previous: Aalesund vs Sandefjord: odds and pick