Kristiansund BK vs Valerenga preview
In the fixture between Kristiansund BK and Valerenga, the 1X2 probabilities show Valerenga at 52%, while Kristiansund BK is at 28%. The most likely scoreline is 1-2, which has an 8% chance of occurring. The expected goals indicate Kristiansund BK at 1.81 and Valerenga at 2.48, suggesting a strong performance from Valerenga.
The match could deviate from this analysis if Kristiansund BK improves their recent form, which includes 4 losses in their last 5 matches. Additionally, both teams to score has a high probability at 77%, and Over 2.5 goals stands at 80%. If Kristiansund BK can find their scoring touch, the outcome may differ from the forecasted expectations.
Kristiansund BK vs Valerenga: model vs market
| Source | Kristiansund BK | Draw | Valerenga |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 29% | 20% | 52% |
| Market | 31% | 24% | 45% |
| Published | 30% | 23% | 47% |
| Edge | -1% | -1% | +2% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.60 vs 1.96.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.15, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +0.9% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Kristiansund BK vs Valerenga odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Valerenga, 12 snapshots since 2026-11-01.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kristiansund BK | 2.77 | 3.02 | +0.25 |
| Draw | 3.89 | 3.90 | +0.01 |
| Valerenga | 2.27 | 2.05 | -0.22 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Kristiansund BK and Valerenga expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 4.57
- Attack rating (Kristiansund BK / Valerenga)
- 1.05 / 1.38
- Defence rating (Kristiansund BK / Valerenga)
- 1.35 / 1.03
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Kristiansund BK vs Valerenga score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Kristiansund BK goals. Columns: Valerenga goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Kristiansund BK vs Valerenga goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 80%
- No goals (0–0)
- 2%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Kristiansund BK vs Valerenga
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Kristiansund BK | 30% | 3.30 |
| Draw | 23% | 4.39 | |
| Valerenga | 47% | 2.13 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 83% | 1.20 |
| Under 2.5 | 17% | 6.01 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 80% | 1.25 |
| No | 20% | 5.03 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Kristiansund BK or draw) | 53% | 1.88 |
| 12 (either side) | 77% | 1.30 | |
| X2 (draw or Valerenga) | 70% | 1.43 | |
| Handicap -1 | Valerenga win by 2+ | 33% | 2.99 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
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| 1 |  |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Kristiansund BK and Valerenga recent form
Kristiansund BK
1W 1D 4L
Valerenga
3W 1D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Kristiansund BK at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-3-5
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 1.33
- Goals against / match
- 1.67
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 12
- They have won 6 of their 25 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 25 matches.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 25 matches.
- They have converted 1 of 3 penalties (33%).
- 43% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Valerenga away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-3-6
- Win rate
- 25%
- Goals for / match
- 1.33
- Goals against / match
- 2.17
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 12
- They have won 9 of their 25 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- They average 2.1 goals per game at home against 1.3 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 25 matches.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 25 matches.
- They have converted 1 of 4 penalties (25%).
- 35% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Kristiansund BK at home only, Valerenga away only.
Kristiansund BK vs Valerenga head-to-head
Last 7 meetings: Kristiansund BK 3 · draws 0 · Valerenga 4.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-29 | Valerenga | 3-1 | Kristiansund BK | Eliteserien |
| 2025-04-27 | Kristiansund BK | 0-2 | Valerenga | Eliteserien |
| 2023-12-10 | Valerenga | 0-2 | Kristiansund BK | Eliteserien |
| 2023-12-06 | Kristiansund BK | 0-2 | Valerenga | Eliteserien |
| 2022-09-11 | Kristiansund BK | 3-2 | Valerenga | Eliteserien |
| 2022-07-10 | Valerenga | 3-0 | Kristiansund BK | Eliteserien |
| 2021-12-12 | Kristiansund BK | 2-1 | Valerenga | Eliteserien |
Other Matchday 26 fixtures
- Rosenborg v Start — match page 2026-11-07
- Tromso vs Bodo/Glimt 2026-11-08
- Lillestrom vs Aalesund — team news & stats 2026-11-08
- Sandefjord vs Molde — team news & stats 2026-11-08
- Viking vs KFUM Oslo 2026-11-08
- Ham-Kam vs Sarpsborg 08 FF — team news & stats 2026-11-08
- Fredrikstad v Brann — match page 2026-11-08
Before and after this match
- Kristiansund BK, previous: Sarpsborg 08 FF – Kristiansund BK, 2026-11-01
- Valerenga, previous: Valerenga vs Tromso: odds and pick