Rosenborg vs Start preview
Rosenborg has a strong 78% chance to win against Start, with an expected goals figure of 3.55 compared to Start's 0.92. The most likely scoreline is 3-0, which aligns with the 82% probability for Over 2.5 goals. Rosenborg's recent form shows 4 wins in their last 6 matches, while Start has struggled with 4 losses in their last 6.
However, the confidence grade is C, indicating some uncertainty. If Start can improve their scoring, the 59% chance for both teams to score could come into play. Rosenborg's dominance in their last head-to-head match adds to their advantage, but unexpected performances can always change the outcome.
Rosenborg vs Start: model vs market
| Source | Rosenborg | Draw | Start |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 85% | 10% | 5% |
| Market | 77% | 14% | 9% |
| Published | 79% | 13% | 8% |
| Edge | +2% | -1% | -1% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 3.55 vs 0.92.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.25, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -1.0% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Rosenborg vs Start odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Rosenborg, 11 snapshots since 2026-11-01.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rosenborg | 1.34 | 1.21 | -0.14 |
| Draw | 5.64 | 6.62 | +0.98 |
| Start | 7.47 | 10.88 | +3.40 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Rosenborg and Start expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 4.47
- Attack rating (Rosenborg / Start)
- 1.64 / 0.94
- Defence rating (Rosenborg / Start)
- 0.70 / 1.19
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Rosenborg vs Start score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Rosenborg goals. Columns: Start goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Rosenborg vs Start goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 59%
- No goals (0–0)
- 2%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Rosenborg vs Start
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Rosenborg | 79% | 1.26 |
| Draw | 13% | 7.66 | |
| Start | 8% | 12.90 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 82% | 1.22 |
| Under 2.5 | 18% | 5.65 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 59% | 1.70 |
| No | 41% | 2.42 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Rosenborg or draw) | 92% | 1.08 |
| 12 (either side) | 87% | 1.15 | |
| X2 (draw or Start) | 21% | 4.80 | |
| Handicap -1 | Rosenborg win by 2+ | 70% | 1.44 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 15% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Rosenborg and Start recent form
Rosenborg
4W 1D 1L
Start
2W 0D 4L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Rosenborg at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 7-3-2
- Win rate
- 58%
- Goals for / match
- 2.33
- Goals against / match
- 1.17
- Clean sheets
- 4 of 12
- They have won 13 of their 25 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
- They average 2.3 goals per game at home against 1.6 on the road.
- They have kept 10 clean sheets in 25 matches.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 25 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 5 of 6 penalties (83%).
Start away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-1-10
- Win rate
- 8%
- Goals for / match
- 0.92
- Goals against / match
- 2.92
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 12
- They have won 5 of their 25 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 25 matches.
- They have failed to score in 8 of 25 matches.
- They have converted 1 of 3 penalties (33%).
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Rosenborg at home only, Start away only.
Rosenborg vs Start head-to-head
Last 8 meetings: Rosenborg 7 · draws 1 · Start 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-18 | Start | 0-3 | Rosenborg | Eliteserien |
| 2026-02-24 | Rosenborg | 2-1 | Start | Friendlies Clubs |
| 2020-11-01 | Rosenborg | 1-0 | Start | Eliteserien |
| 2020-07-16 | Start | 0-0 | Rosenborg | Eliteserien |
| 2018-11-11 | Start | 0-1 | Rosenborg | Eliteserien |
| 2018-04-22 | Rosenborg | 2-0 | Start | Eliteserien |
| 2016-09-18 | Rosenborg | 2-0 | Start | Eliteserien |
| 2016-05-12 | Start | 0-2 | Rosenborg | Eliteserien |
Other Matchday 26 fixtures
- Kristiansund BK v Valerenga — match page 2026-11-07
- Tromso vs Bodo/Glimt 2026-11-08
- Lillestrom vs Aalesund — team news & stats 2026-11-08
- Sandefjord vs Molde — team news & stats 2026-11-08
- Viking vs KFUM Oslo 2026-11-08
- Ham-Kam vs Sarpsborg 08 FF — team news & stats 2026-11-08
- Fredrikstad v Brann — match page 2026-11-08
Before and after this match
- Rosenborg, previous: Fredrikstad – Rosenborg, 2026-10-31
- Start, previous: Start v Lillestrom analysis