Ham-Kam vs Sarpsborg 08 FF preview
In the upcoming match between Ham-Kam and Sarpsborg 08 FF, the 1X2 probabilities show Sarpsborg 08 FF at 40% to win, while Ham-Kam is at 35%. The most likely scoreline predicted is 1-2, with an 8% chance. Both teams have shown mixed recent form, with Ham-Kam winning 3 of their last 6 matches, while Sarpsborg 08 FF has also won 3 out of their last 6.
The model indicates a strong likelihood for Over 2.5 goals at 67% and both teams to score at 69%. However, the confidence grade is C, suggesting that unexpected outcomes could arise, especially given Ham-Kam's recent inconsistency and Sarpsborg's better head-to-head record, winning all 3 of their last encounters.
Ham-Kam vs Sarpsborg 08 FF: model vs market
| Source | Ham-Kam | Draw | Sarpsborg 08 FF |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 43% | 22% | 34% |
| Market | 31% | 25% | 44% |
| Published | 34% | 24% | 42% |
| Edge | +3% | -1% | -2% |
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.20, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -8.4% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Ham-Kam vs Sarpsborg 08 FF odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Sarpsborg 08 FF, 10 snapshots since 2026-11-02.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ham-Kam | 3.05 | 3.00 | -0.05 |
| Draw | 3.75 | 3.76 | +0.01 |
| Sarpsborg 08 FF | 2.11 | 2.12 | +0.01 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Ham-Kam and Sarpsborg 08 FF expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.88
- Attack rating (Ham-Kam / Sarpsborg 08 FF)
- 1.00 / 1.09
- Defence rating (Ham-Kam / Sarpsborg 08 FF)
- 1.20 / 1.13
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Ham-Kam vs Sarpsborg 08 FF score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Ham-Kam goals. Columns: Sarpsborg 08 FF goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Ham-Kam vs Sarpsborg 08 FF goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 74%
- No goals (0–0)
- 3%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Ham-Kam vs Sarpsborg 08 FF
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Ham-Kam | 34% | 2.93 |
| Draw | 24% | 4.13 | |
| Sarpsborg 08 FF | 42% | 2.40 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 74% | 1.34 |
| Under 2.5 | 26% | 3.91 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 74% | 1.35 |
| No | 26% | 3.84 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Ham-Kam or draw) | 58% | 1.71 |
| 12 (either side) | 76% | 1.32 | |
| X2 (draw or Sarpsborg 08 FF) | 66% | 1.52 | |
| Handicap -1 | Sarpsborg 08 FF win by 2+ | 18% | 5.48 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 16% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 2 |  |
First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 4 |  |
200% first deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Ham-Kam and Sarpsborg 08 FF recent form
Ham-Kam
2W 1D 3L
Sarpsborg 08 FF
4W 0D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Ham-Kam at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 5-2-5
- Win rate
- 42%
- Goals for / match
- 1.42
- Goals against / match
- 2.00
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 12
- They have won 7 of their 24 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 24 matches.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 24 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Sarpsborg 08 FF away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-4-5
- Win rate
- 25%
- Goals for / match
- 1.33
- Goals against / match
- 1.58
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 12
- They have won 8 of their 24 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 24 matches.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 24 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 5 penalties (80%).
League matches this season before kick-off: Ham-Kam at home only, Sarpsborg 08 FF away only.
Ham-Kam vs Sarpsborg 08 FF head-to-head
Last 3 meetings: Ham-Kam 0 · draws 0 · Sarpsborg 08 FF 3.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-26 | Sarpsborg 08 FF | 1-0 | Ham-Kam | Eliteserien |
| 2025-08-31 | Ham-Kam | 1-3 | Sarpsborg 08 FF | Eliteserien |
| 2025-05-11 | Sarpsborg 08 FF | 4-0 | Ham-Kam | Eliteserien |
Other Matchday 26 fixtures
- Kristiansund BK v Valerenga — match page 2026-11-07
- Rosenborg v Start — match page 2026-11-07
- Tromso vs Bodo/Glimt 2026-11-08
- Lillestrom vs Aalesund — team news & stats 2026-11-08
- Sandefjord vs Molde — team news & stats 2026-11-08
- Viking vs KFUM Oslo 2026-11-08
- Fredrikstad v Brann — match page 2026-11-08
Before and after this match
- Ham-Kam, previous: KFUM Oslo vs Ham-Kam prediction
- Sarpsborg 08 FF, previous: Sarpsborg 08 FF – Kristiansund BK, 2026-11-01