Asane vs hodd: model vs market
| Source | Asane | Draw | hodd |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 9% | 15% | 76% |
| Market | 40% | 26% | 34% |
| Published | 33% | 23% | 44% |
| Edge | -8% | -3% | +11% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.80 vs 0.91.
- The market prices hodd below our published probability: +10.5 percentage points of edge.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.
Asane vs hodd odds movement
Median bookmaker price on hodd, 2 snapshots since 2026-10-28.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Asane | 2.26 | 2.25 | -0.01 |
| Draw | 3.54 | 3.52 | -0.01 |
| hodd | 2.72 | 2.69 | -0.03 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Asane and hodd expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.71
- Attack rating (Asane / hodd)
- 0.68 / 0.93
- Defence rating (Asane / hodd)
- 0.93 / 0.95
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Asane vs hodd score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Asane goals. Columns: hodd goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Asane vs hodd goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 57%
- No goals (0–0)
- 3%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Asane vs hodd
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Asane | 33% | 3.07 |
| Draw | 23% | 4.32 | |
| hodd | 44% | 2.26 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 72% | 1.40 |
| Under 2.5 | 28% | 3.51 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 57% | 1.76 |
| No | 43% | 2.31 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Asane or draw) | 56% | 1.80 |
| 12 (either side) | 77% | 1.30 | |
| X2 (draw or hodd) | 67% | 1.48 | |
| Handicap -1 | hodd win by 2+ | 56% | 1.78 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Asane and hodd recent form
Asane
2W 0D 4L
hodd
1W 1D 4L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
hodd away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-0-0
- Win rate
- 100%
- Goals for / match
- 2.50
- Goals against / match
- 0.50
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 2
League matches this season before kick-off: Asane at home only, hodd away only.
Asane vs hodd head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Asane 3 · draws 5 · hodd 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-05 | Asane | 2-2 | hodd | Norway 1. Division |
| 2026-05-01 | hodd | 1-0 | Asane | Norway 1. Division |
| 2026-03-21 | Asane | 0-1 | hodd | Friendlies Clubs |
| 2025-10-18 | hodd | 3-3 | Asane | Norway 1. Division |
| 2025-07-26 | Asane | 2-2 | hodd | Norway 1. Division |
| 2025-03-15 | hodd | 2-3 | Asane | Friendlies Clubs |
| 2024-03-24 | Asane | 2-0 | hodd | Friendlies Clubs |
| 2023-09-17 | Asane | 1-0 | hodd | 1. Division |
| 2023-04-22 | hodd | 1-1 | Asane | 1. Division |
| 2016-09-18 | Asane | 1-1 | hodd | 1. Division |
Other Round of 32 fixtures
- Tromsdalen Uil v Lyn — match page 2026-10-28
- Egersund vs Bryne 2026-10-28
- Kristiansund BK v Aalesund — match page 2026-10-28
- Molde vs Stromsgodset — team news & stats 2026-10-28
- Pors Grenland vs Kongsvinger 2026-10-28
- Ranheim v Fredrikstad — match page 2026-10-28
- Rosenborg vs Ham-Kam 2026-10-28
Before and after this match
- Asane, previous: Moss v Asane analysis
- Asane, next: Asane v Haugesund analysis
- hodd, previous: Haugesund – hodd, 2026-10-25
- hodd, next: hodd vs Bryne: odds and pick