Updated

Eliteserien · Matchday 12

Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Aalesund

· Sarpsborg Stadion, Sarpsberg· Referee Mischa Kellerhals

Alin prediction Sarpsborg 08 FF to win

Cblended with market odds

Predicted score 2 – 1

7% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
Sarpsborg 08 FFDrawAalesund
  • RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Sarpsborg 08 FF is the favourite, not a value bet.
Best market odds
Sarpsborg 08 FF1.89 Draw4.20 Aalesund3.77

Price as of

Expected return at 1.89: -9.3% per unit staked

18+ · T&Cs apply · best price across 10 bookmakers, each at its own last update; the highlighted price is our pick.

Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Aalesund preview

In the Eliteserien fixture between Sarpsborg 08 FF and Aalesund, the 1X2 probabilities show Sarpsborg 08 FF at 40%, Aalesund at 39%, with a draw at 21%. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, which aligns with the expected goals of 2.19 for Sarpsborg and 2.17 for Aalesund.

Both teams are in decent form, with Sarpsborg's recent results being L-W-W-L-D-D and Aalesund's being W-L-W-W-L-W. The high probabilities for Over 2.5 goals at 81% and both teams to score at 79% suggest a potentially high-scoring match. However, the confidence grade of C indicates some uncertainty, meaning unexpected outcomes could occur.

Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Aalesund: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceSarpsborg 08 FFDrawAalesund
Model40%21%39%
Market51%23%26%
Published48%23%29%
Edge-3%-1%+3%

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.89, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -9.3% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).

Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Aalesund odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Sarpsborg 08 FF, 11 snapshots since 2026-10-19.

Opened 1.75Now 1.85 +0.10
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Sarpsborg 08 FF1.751.85+0.10
Draw4.084.00-0.08
Aalesund3.903.60-0.30

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Sarpsborg 08 FF and Aalesund expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

2.19Sarpsborg 08 FF
2.16Aalesund
Total expected goals
4.35
Attack rating (Sarpsborg 08 FF / Aalesund)
0.94 / 1.66
Defence rating (Sarpsborg 08 FF / Aalesund)
0.95 / 1.29

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Aalesund score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 1.9% 2.2% 3.0% 2.2% 1.9% 1 2.2% 6.7% 6.6% 4.7% 4.2% 2 3.1% 6.7% 7.2% 5.2% 4.6% 3 2.3% 4.9% 5.3% 3.8% 3.4% 4+ 2.1% 4.5% 4.8% 3.5% 3.1%

Rows: Sarpsborg 08 FF goals. Columns: Aalesund goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Aalesund goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 98%
Over 1.5 94%
Over 2.5 81%
Over 3.5 63%
Both teams to score
79%
No goals (0–0)
2%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Aalesund

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Sarpsborg 08 FF48%2.08
Draw23%4.39
Aalesund29%3.42
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.581%1.24
Under 2.519%5.25
Both teams to scoreYes79%1.26
No21%4.81
Double chance1X (Sarpsborg 08 FF or draw)71%1.41
12 (either side)77%1.30
X2 (draw or Aalesund)52%1.92
Handicap -1Sarpsborg 08 FF win by 2+23%4.29
Push (exactly one goal)17%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Compare the market for this pick

Where to bet on this match in Kenya

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Sarpsborg 08 FF and Aalesund recent form

Sarpsborg 08 FF 2W 2D 2L
Aalesund 4W 0D 2L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Sarpsborg 08 FF at home

Record (W-D-L)
4-3-4
Win rate
36%
Goals for / match
1.09
Goals against / match
1.36
Clean sheets
2 of 11
  • They have won 7 of their 22 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
  • They have kept 5 clean sheets in 22 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 5 of 22 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
  • They have converted 4 of 5 penalties (80%).
  • 30% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Aalesund away

Record (W-D-L)
3-3-5
Win rate
27%
Goals for / match
1.36
Goals against / match
1.91
Clean sheets
0 of 11
  • They have won 4 of their 22 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
  • They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 1.1 on the road.
  • 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

League matches this season before kick-off: Sarpsborg 08 FF at home only, Aalesund away only.

Injuries & availability

Sarpsborg 08 FF absences

  • F. Carstensen injury
  • M. Opoku ankle injury

Aalesund absences

  • A. Kjelsen injury
  • H. Hammer injury
  • P. Aukland injury
  • S. Haram elbow injury

Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.

Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Aalesund head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: Sarpsborg 08 FF 7 · draws 1 · Aalesund 2.

Sarpsborg 08 FFDrawsAalesund
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-10-11Aalesund2-4Sarpsborg 08 FFEliteserien
2023-10-22Aalesund3-2Sarpsborg 08 FFEliteserien
2023-05-29Sarpsborg 08 FF3-1AalesundEliteserien
2022-09-11Aalesund1-3Sarpsborg 08 FFEliteserien
2022-05-22Sarpsborg 08 FF1-2AalesundEliteserien
2020-09-13Aalesund0-1Sarpsborg 08 FFEliteserien
2020-08-02Sarpsborg 08 FF4-0AalesundEliteserien
2017-11-19Sarpsborg 08 FF1-0AalesundEliteserien
2017-04-05Aalesund1-3Sarpsborg 08 FFEliteserien
2016-08-26Aalesund2-2Sarpsborg 08 FFEliteserien

Other Matchday 12 fixtures

Before and after this match

Prediction snapshot Sarpsborg 08 FF to win Predicted score 2 – 1 C Bet on Sarpsborg 08 FF
Our pick: Sarpsborg 08 FF to win 18+ Bet Now