Viking vs Tromso Prediction & Betting Tips 25/10/2026

Viking vs Tromso preview

Viking host Tromso with a 66% probability of winning, while Tromso sits at 15%. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, which aligns with Viking's expected goals of 2.94 compared to Tromso's 1.28. Viking's recent form shows 6 matches without a loss, while Tromso has 2 wins in their last 6.

However, the confidence grade for this match is C, indicating some uncertainty. If Tromso can improve their scoring, they might challenge Viking, especially since both teams to score stands at 69%. Additionally, Viking's strong form could be disrupted if they fail to convert their chances.

Viking vs Tromso: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	Viking	Draw	Tromso
Model	64%	18%	18%
Market	62%	20%	17%
Published	63%	20%	18%
Edge	0%	-1%	0%

Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.74 vs 1.46.
Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.53, recorded 2026-10-24 — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -4.1% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).

Viking vs Tromso odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Viking, 11 snapshots since 2026-10-19.

Opened 1.46Now 1.51 +0.05

Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
Selection	First	Latest	Move
Viking	1.46	1.51	+0.05
Draw	4.81	4.65	-0.16
Tromso	6.05	5.40	-0.65

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Viking and Tromso expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

2.74Viking

1.46Tromso

Total expected goals: 4.20
Attack rating (Viking / Tromso): 1.47 / 1.10
Defence rating (Viking / Tromso): 0.96 / 1.03

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Viking vs Tromso score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 2.1% 1.6% 1.6% 0.8% 0.4% 1 3.5% 6.6% 4.4% 2.1% 1.1% 2 5.6% 8.2% 6.0% 2.9% 1.5% 3 5.1% 7.5% 5.5% 2.7% 1.3% 4+ 6.8% 10.0% 7.3% 3.6% 1.8%

Rows: Viking goals. Columns: Tromso goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Viking vs Tromso goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 98%

Over 1.5 93%

Over 2.5 79%

Over 3.5 60%

Both teams to score: 72%
No goals (0–0): 2%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Viking vs Tromso

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	Viking	63%	1.59
	Draw	20%	5.07
	Tromso	18%	5.69
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	79%	1.27
	Under 2.5	21%	4.76
Both teams to score	Yes	72%	1.38
	No	28%	3.63
Double chance	1X (Viking or draw)	82%	1.21
	12 (either side)	80%	1.25
	X2 (draw or Tromso)	37%	2.68
Handicap -1	Viking win by 2+	44%	2.25
	Push (exactly one goal)	19%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Compare the market for this pick

Where to bet on this match in Kenya

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Viking and Tromso recent form

Viking 4W 1D 1L

Tromso 2W 2D 2L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Viking at home

Record (W-D-L): 11-0-0
Win rate: 100%
Goals for / match: 3.73
Goals against / match: 1.09
Clean sheets: 3 of 11

They have won 17 of their 22 league games this season, scoring 2.5 goals per match.
They average 3.8 goals per game at home against 1.5 on the road.
They have kept 7 clean sheets in 22 matches.
Their longest winning run this season stretches to 9 matches.
They have converted 4 of 7 penalties (57%).
39% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Tromso away

Record (W-D-L): 4-3-4
Win rate: 36%
Goals for / match: 1.82
Goals against / match: 1.91
Clean sheets: 2 of 11

They have won 11 of their 22 league games this season, scoring 1.9 goals per match.
They have kept 9 clean sheets in 22 matches.
They have failed to score in 6 of 22 matches.
Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.

League matches this season before kick-off: Viking at home only, Tromso away only.