Tromso vs Haugesund: model vs market
| Source | Tromso | Draw | Haugesund |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 7% | 13% | 80% |
| Market | 81% | 12% | 6% |
| Published | 63% | 13% | 25% |
| Edge | -19% | 0% | +18% |
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.
Tromso vs Haugesund odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Tromso, 5 snapshots since 2026-10-26.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tromso | 1.36 | 1.13 | -0.23 |
| Draw | 4.95 | 7.40 | +2.45 |
| Haugesund | 6.60 | 14.68 | +8.08 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Tromso and Haugesund expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.82
- Attack rating (Tromso / Haugesund)
- 0.82 / 1.12
- Defence rating (Tromso / Haugesund)
- 0.84 / 0.74
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Tromso vs Haugesund score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Tromso goals. Columns: Haugesund goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Tromso vs Haugesund goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 54%
- No goals (0–0)
- 3%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Tromso vs Haugesund
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Tromso | 63% | 1.59 |
| Draw | 13% | 7.92 | |
| Haugesund | 25% | 4.05 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 73% | 1.36 |
| Under 2.5 | 27% | 3.76 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 54% | 1.84 |
| No | 46% | 2.19 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Tromso or draw) | 75% | 1.33 |
| 12 (either side) | 87% | 1.14 | |
| X2 (draw or Haugesund) | 37% | 2.68 | |
| Handicap -1 | Tromso win by 2+ | 2% | 42.48 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 5% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Tromso and Haugesund recent form
Tromso
2W 2D 2L
Haugesund
4W 1D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Haugesund away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-0-0
- Win rate
- 100%
- Goals for / match
- 4.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.50
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 2
League matches this season before kick-off: Tromso at home only, Haugesund away only.
Tromso vs Haugesund head-to-head
Last 9 meetings: Tromso 5 · draws 1 · Haugesund 3.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-26 | Haugesund | 2-3 | Tromso | Eliteserien |
| 2025-03-30 | Tromso | 1-0 | Haugesund | Eliteserien |
| 2024-11-10 | Haugesund | 2-0 | Tromso | Eliteserien |
| 2024-04-14 | Tromso | 0-1 | Haugesund | Eliteserien |
| 2023-11-26 | Tromso | 2-1 | Haugesund | Eliteserien |
| 2023-05-29 | Haugesund | 1-2 | Tromso | Eliteserien |
| 2023-02-25 | Tromso | 3-2 | Haugesund | Friendlies Clubs |
| 2022-09-04 | Haugesund | 2-1 | Tromso | Eliteserien |
| 2022-06-19 | Tromso | 1-1 | Haugesund | Eliteserien |
Other Round of 32 fixtures
- Tromsdalen Uil v Lyn — match page 2026-10-28
- Asane vs hodd — team news & stats 2026-10-28
- Egersund vs Bryne 2026-10-28
- Kristiansund BK v Aalesund — match page 2026-10-28
- Molde vs Stromsgodset — team news & stats 2026-10-28
- Pors Grenland vs Kongsvinger 2026-10-28
- Ranheim v Fredrikstad — match page 2026-10-28
Before and after this match
- Tromso, previous: Viking vs Tromso prediction
- Tromso, next: Valerenga vs Tromso: odds and pick
- Haugesund, previous: Haugesund – hodd, 2026-10-25
- Haugesund, next: Asane v Haugesund analysis