Start vs Sandefjord preview
In the Eliteserien fixture between Start and Sandefjord, the 1X2 probabilities show Start at 40%, while Sandefjord stands at 36%. The most likely scoreline is 2-1 for Start, with a 6% chance. The model indicates a high likelihood of Over 2.5 goals at 72% and both teams to score at 70%.
Start's expected goals are 1.53, while Sandefjord's are higher at 2.19. Recent form shows Start with two losses followed by two wins, while Sandefjord has a mix of results with two wins and two draws. The head-to-head record favors Sandefjord with 5 wins in the last 10 encounters. This context could influence the outcome, making the match unpredictable.
Start vs Sandefjord: model vs market
| Source | Start | Draw | Sandefjord |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 26% | 22% | 52% |
| Market | 45% | 25% | 30% |
| Published | 40% | 24% | 36% |
| Edge | -5% | -1% | +5% |
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.18, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -13.0% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Start vs Sandefjord odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Start, 11 snapshots since 2026-10-19.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Start | 2.08 | 2.10 | +0.02 |
| Draw | 3.75 | 3.70 | -0.05 |
| Sandefjord | 3.10 | 3.10 | +0.00 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Start and Sandefjord expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.72
- Attack rating (Start / Sandefjord)
- 1.07 / 1.13
- Defence rating (Start / Sandefjord)
- 1.40 / 0.79
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Start vs Sandefjord score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Start goals. Columns: Sandefjord goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Start vs Sandefjord goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 70%
- No goals (0–0)
- 3%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Start vs Sandefjord
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Start | 40% | 2.51 |
| Draw | 24% | 4.08 | |
| Sandefjord | 36% | 2.81 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 72% | 1.39 |
| Under 2.5 | 28% | 3.54 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 70% | 1.42 |
| No | 30% | 3.38 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Start or draw) | 64% | 1.55 |
| 12 (either side) | 76% | 1.32 | |
| X2 (draw or Sandefjord) | 60% | 1.66 | |
| Handicap -1 | Start win by 2+ | 12% | 8.14 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 14% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Start and Sandefjord recent form
Start
3W 0D 3L
Sandefjord
2W 2D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Start at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-3-5
- Win rate
- 27%
- Goals for / match
- 1.27
- Goals against / match
- 1.73
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 11
- They have won 4 of their 22 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 22 matches.
- 32% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Sandefjord away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-1-7
- Win rate
- 27%
- Goals for / match
- 1.09
- Goals against / match
- 1.64
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 11
- They have won 6 of their 22 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 22 matches.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 22 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Start at home only, Sandefjord away only.
Injuries & availability
Start absences
- E. Segberg yellow cards
- F. Manojlovic hand injury
- J. Husebo foot injury
-
K. Tonnesen
leg injury
Sandefjord absences
-
D. Koswal
knee injury
- E. Hadaya injury
-
F. Loftesnes-Bjune
thigh injury
-
M. Melchior
knee injury
-
N. Moller
ankle injury
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.
Start vs Sandefjord head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Start 1 · draws 4 · Sandefjord 5.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-20 | Sandefjord | 3-0 | Start | Eliteserien |
| 2026-03-08 | Sandefjord | 3-2 | Start | Friendlies Clubs |
| 2023-03-05 | Start | 1-0 | Sandefjord | Friendlies Clubs |
| 2021-05-02 | Start | 1-1 | Sandefjord | Friendlies Clubs |
| 2020-10-24 | Start | 0-1 | Sandefjord | Eliteserien |
| 2020-06-21 | Sandefjord | 2-2 | Start | Eliteserien |
| 2019-08-09 | Sandefjord | 0-0 | Start | 1. Division |
| 2019-04-27 | Start | 2-2 | Sandefjord | 1. Division |
| 2018-11-04 | Sandefjord | 4-1 | Start | Eliteserien |
| 2018-04-02 | Start | 1-4 | Sandefjord | Eliteserien |
Other Matchday 12 fixtures
- Bodo/Glimt vs Valerenga — team news & stats 2026-10-24
- Ham-Kam v Rosenborg — match page 2026-10-24
- Viking vs Tromso 2026-10-25
- Kristiansund BK vs KFUM Oslo 2026-10-25
- Lillestrom v Brann — match page 2026-10-25
- Sarpsborg 08 FF v Aalesund — match page 2026-10-25
- Molde vs Fredrikstad 2026-10-25
Before and after this match
- Start, previous: Molde – Start, 2026-10-18
- Sandefjord, previous: Sandefjord v Lillestrom analysis
- Sandefjord, next: ODD Ballklubb v Sandefjord analysis