Molde vs Start preview
In the Eliteserien fixture between Molde and Start, the 1X2 probabilities show Molde at 72%, with a most likely scoreline of 3-1 (7%). The model predicts a high chance for Over 2.5 goals at 89% and both teams to score at 76%.
Molde's recent form includes 4 wins in their last 6 matches, while Start has won 3 of their last 6. However, the confidence grade is C, indicating uncertainty. If Start performs better than expected or if Molde struggles to convert chances, the predictions could be off.
Molde vs Start: model vs market
| Source | Molde | Draw | Start |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 78% | 12% | 10% |
| Market | 71% | 17% | 12% |
| Published | 73% | 16% | 12% |
| Edge | +7% | -5% | -2% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 3.72 vs 1.48.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.
- The market prices Molde below the model: +6.8 percentage points of edge.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.34, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update.
Molde vs Start odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Molde, 6 snapshots since 2026-10-12.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Molde | 1.34 | 1.33 | -0.01 |
| Draw | 5.50 | 5.50 | +0.00 |
| Start | 7.30 | 7.75 | +0.45 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Molde and Start expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 5.19
- Attack rating (Molde / Start)
- 1.81 / 1.13
- Defence rating (Molde / Start)
- 0.96 / 1.14
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Molde vs Start score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Molde goals. Columns: Start goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Molde vs Start goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 76%
- No goals (0–0)
- 1%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Molde vs Start
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Molde | 73% | 1.38 |
| Draw | 16% | 6.32 | |
| Start | 12% | 8.57 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 89% | 1.12 |
| Under 2.5 | 11% | 9.14 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 76% | 1.32 |
| No | 24% | 4.10 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Molde or draw) | 88% | 1.13 |
| 12 (either side) | 84% | 1.19 | |
| X2 (draw or Start) | 27% | 3.64 | |
| Handicap -1 | Molde win by 2+ | 62% | 1.62 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 16% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 2 |  |
First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 4 |  |
200% first deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Molde and Start recent form
Molde
4W 1D 1L
Start
3W 0D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Molde at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 7-1-3
- Win rate
- 64%
- Goals for / match
- 2.18
- Goals against / match
- 1.18
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 11
- They have won 11 of their 21 league games this season, scoring 2.1 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 21 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- 34% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Start away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-1-9
- Win rate
- 9%
- Goals for / match
- 0.91
- Goals against / match
- 2.64
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 11
- They have won 4 of their 21 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 21 matches.
- 32% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Molde at home only, Start away only.
Molde vs Start head-to-head
Last 1 meetings: Molde 0 · draws 1 · Start 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-19 | Start | 1-1 | Molde | Eliteserien |
Other Matchday 24 fixtures
- Ham-Kam vs Bodo/Glimt — team news & stats 2026-10-17
- Kristiansund BK v Aalesund — match page 2026-10-17
- Viking v Fredrikstad — match page 2026-10-17
- Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Rosenborg 2026-10-18
- Valerenga vs Brann 2026-10-18
- Sandefjord vs Lillestrom — team news & stats 2026-10-18
- Tromso vs KFUM Oslo — team news & stats 2026-10-18
Before and after this match
- Molde, previous: Lillestrom vs Molde: odds and pick
- Molde, next: Molde – Stromsgodset, 2026-10-28
- Start, previous: Start v Ham-Kam analysis