Kristiansund BK vs Aalesund preview
In the match between Kristiansund BK and Aalesund, the 1X2 probabilities show Aalesund at 55% to win, compared to Kristiansund BK's 27%. The most likely scoreline is 2-3, which aligns with the high likelihood of Over 2.5 goals at 87% and both teams to score at 83%.
However, recent form indicates Kristiansund BK has struggled, with two losses in their last three matches, while Aalesund has won three of their last six. The expected goals also favor Aalesund at 2.89 compared to Kristiansund BK's 2.09. A surprise could occur if Kristiansund BK improves their performance significantly or if Aalesund underperforms.
Kristiansund BK vs Aalesund: model vs market
| Source | Kristiansund BK | Draw | Aalesund |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 32% | 18% | 50% |
| Market | 39% | 25% | 36% |
| Published | 37% | 24% | 39% |
| Edge | -7% | -7% | +14% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.83 vs 2.29.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
- The market prices Aalesund below the model: +14.3 percentage points of edge.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.68, recorded — the top price across the 9 books we record, each at its own last update.
Kristiansund BK vs Aalesund odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Aalesund, 6 snapshots since 2026-10-12.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kristiansund BK | 2.39 | 2.39 | +0.00 |
| Draw | 3.75 | 3.70 | -0.05 |
| Aalesund | 2.63 | 2.63 | +0.00 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Kristiansund BK and Aalesund expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 5.12
- Attack rating (Kristiansund BK / Aalesund)
- 0.93 / 1.57
- Defence rating (Kristiansund BK / Aalesund)
- 1.32 / 1.36
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Kristiansund BK vs Aalesund score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Kristiansund BK goals. Columns: Aalesund goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Kristiansund BK vs Aalesund goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 85%
- No goals (0–0)
- 1%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Kristiansund BK vs Aalesund
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Kristiansund BK | 37% | 2.68 |
| Draw | 24% | 4.24 | |
| Aalesund | 39% | 2.55 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 89% | 1.13 |
| Under 2.5 | 11% | 8.70 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 85% | 1.18 |
| No | 15% | 6.65 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Kristiansund BK or draw) | 61% | 1.64 |
| 12 (either side) | 76% | 1.31 | |
| X2 (draw or Aalesund) | 63% | 1.59 | |
| Handicap -1 | Aalesund win by 2+ | 33% | 3.06 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 17% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Kristiansund BK and Aalesund recent form
Kristiansund BK
2W 1D 3L
Aalesund
3W 0D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Kristiansund BK at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-2-4
- Win rate
- 40%
- Goals for / match
- 1.30
- Goals against / match
- 1.40
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 10
- They have won 5 of their 22 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They average 1.3 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 22 matches.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 22 matches.
- 45% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Aalesund away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-3-5
- Win rate
- 20%
- Goals for / match
- 1.10
- Goals against / match
- 2.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 10
- They have won 4 of their 22 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 1.1 on the road.
- 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Kristiansund BK at home only, Aalesund away only.
Kristiansund BK vs Aalesund head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Kristiansund BK 3 · draws 2 · Aalesund 5.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-27 | Kristiansund BK | 0-3 | Aalesund | Friendlies Clubs |
| 2026-04-26 | Aalesund | 1-1 | Kristiansund BK | Eliteserien |
| 2026-01-30 | Aalesund | 1-0 | Kristiansund BK | Friendlies Clubs |
| 2025-03-23 | Kristiansund BK | 2-1 | Aalesund | Friendlies Clubs |
| 2024-03-24 | Kristiansund BK | 1-1 | Aalesund | Friendlies Clubs |
| 2024-02-16 | Aalesund | 1-3 | Kristiansund BK | Friendlies Clubs |
| 2023-04-02 | Aalesund | 1-0 | Kristiansund BK | Friendlies Clubs |
| 2022-10-30 | Kristiansund BK | 4-0 | Aalesund | Eliteserien |
| 2022-04-03 | Aalesund | 1-0 | Kristiansund BK | Eliteserien |
| 2021-05-02 | Kristiansund BK | 0-4 | Aalesund | Friendlies Clubs |
Other Matchday 24 fixtures
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- Viking v Fredrikstad — match page 2026-10-17
- Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Rosenborg 2026-10-18
- Valerenga vs Brann 2026-10-18
- Molde v Start — match page 2026-10-18
- Sandefjord vs Lillestrom — team news & stats 2026-10-18
- Tromso vs KFUM Oslo — team news & stats 2026-10-18
Before and after this match
- Kristiansund BK, previous: Bodo/Glimt vs Kristiansund BK prediction
- Kristiansund BK, next: Kristiansund BK vs Aalesund prediction
- Aalesund, previous: Aalesund vs Sarpsborg 08 FF: odds and pick
- Aalesund, next: Kristiansund BK vs Aalesund prediction