Kongsvinger vs Stabaek: model vs market
| Source | Kongsvinger | Draw | Stabaek |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 55% | 20% | 25% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 55% | 20% | 25% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.59 vs 1.78.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Kongsvinger and Stabaek expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 4.37
- Attack rating (Kongsvinger / Stabaek)
- 1.75 / 1.07
- Defence rating (Kongsvinger / Stabaek)
- 1.05 / 0.77
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Kongsvinger vs Stabaek score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Kongsvinger goals. Columns: Stabaek goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Kongsvinger vs Stabaek goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 78%
- No goals (0–0)
- 2%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Kongsvinger vs Stabaek
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Kongsvinger | 55% | 1.82 |
| Draw | 20% | 5.10 | |
| Stabaek | 25% | 3.92 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 81% | 1.23 |
| Under 2.5 | 19% | 5.31 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 78% | 1.29 |
| No | 22% | 4.45 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Kongsvinger or draw) | 75% | 1.34 |
| 12 (either side) | 80% | 1.24 | |
| X2 (draw or Stabaek) | 45% | 2.22 | |
| Handicap -1 | Kongsvinger win by 2+ | 36% | 2.78 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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| 2 |  |
First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
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| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Kongsvinger and Stabaek recent form
Kongsvinger
4W 0D 2L
Stabaek
4W 1D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Kongsvinger at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 11-2-1
- Win rate
- 79%
- Goals for / match
- 3.93
- Goals against / match
- 1.64
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 14
- They have won 18 of their 27 league games this season, scoring 3.0 goals per match.
- They average 3.9 goals per game at home against 2.0 on the road.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 27 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 7 of 7 penalties (100%).
Stabaek away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 6-3-5
- Win rate
- 43%
- Goals for / match
- 1.79
- Goals against / match
- 1.21
- Clean sheets
- 5 of 14
- They have won 16 of their 27 league games this season, scoring 2.4 goals per match.
- They average 3.0 goals per game at home against 1.8 on the road.
- They have kept 9 clean sheets in 27 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 27 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 7 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
- 44% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Kongsvinger at home only, Stabaek away only.
Kongsvinger vs Stabaek head-to-head
Last 3 meetings: Kongsvinger 1 · draws 1 · Stabaek 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-25 | Stabaek | 2-0 | Kongsvinger | Norway 1. Division |
| 2025-08-10 | Kongsvinger | 2-1 | Stabaek | Norway 1. Division |
| 2025-05-31 | Stabaek | 2-2 | Kongsvinger | Norway 1. Division |
Other Matchday 29 fixtures
- Ranheim v Sogndal — match page 2026-11-01
- Stromsgodset vs Moss — team news & stats 2026-11-01
- ODD Ballklubb vs Sandnes ULF 2026-11-01
- Asane v Haugesund — match page 2026-11-01
- hodd vs Bryne — team news & stats 2026-11-01
- Egersund vs Strommen 2026-11-01
- Lyn v Raufoss — match page 2026-11-01
Before and after this match
- Kongsvinger, previous: Pors Grenland v Kongsvinger analysis
- Stabaek, previous: Stabaek vs ODD Ballklubb: odds and pick