Stabaek vs Stromsgodset preview
In the fixture between Stabaek and Stromsgodset, the 1X2 probabilities show Stabaek at 42% to win, while Stromsgodset sits at 35%. The most likely scoreline predicted is 2-1, with a 7% chance. Both teams to score has a 64% likelihood, and Over 2.5 goals is at 62%.
Stabaek's recent form includes 4 wins and 1 draw, while Stromsgodset has 4 wins and 2 losses in their last 6 matches. However, Stabaek has not won against Stromsgodset in their last meeting, which could impact their confidence. The expected goals are 1.39 for Stabaek and 1.83 for Stromsgodset, indicating a competitive matchup.
Stabaek vs Stromsgodset: model vs market
| Source | Stabaek | Draw | Stromsgodset |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 28% | 25% | 47% |
| Market | 51% | 22% | 27% |
| Published | 45% | 23% | 32% |
| Edge | -6% | +1% | +5% |
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.88, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -15.3% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Stabaek vs Stromsgodset odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Stabaek, 6 snapshots since 2026-11-04.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stabaek | 2.00 | 1.81 | -0.19 |
| Draw | 3.94 | 4.10 | +0.16 |
| Stromsgodset | 3.00 | 3.40 | +0.40 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Stabaek and Stromsgodset expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.22
- Attack rating (Stabaek / Stromsgodset)
- 1.07 / 1.48
- Defence rating (Stabaek / Stromsgodset)
- 0.78 / 0.68
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Stabaek vs Stromsgodset score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Stabaek goals. Columns: Stromsgodset goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Stabaek vs Stromsgodset goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 64%
- No goals (0–0)
- 5%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Stabaek vs Stromsgodset
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Stabaek | 45% | 2.22 |
| Draw | 23% | 4.35 | |
| Stromsgodset | 32% | 3.13 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 62% | 1.60 |
| Under 2.5 | 38% | 2.67 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 64% | 1.56 |
| No | 36% | 2.79 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Stabaek or draw) | 68% | 1.47 |
| 12 (either side) | 77% | 1.30 | |
| X2 (draw or Stromsgodset) | 55% | 1.82 | |
| Handicap -1 | Stabaek win by 2+ | 13% | 7.69 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 15% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Stabaek and Stromsgodset recent form
Stabaek
4W 1D 1L
Stromsgodset
4W 0D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Stabaek at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 11-1-2
- Win rate
- 79%
- Goals for / match
- 2.93
- Goals against / match
- 1.21
- Clean sheets
- 5 of 14
- They have won 17 of their 28 league games this season, scoring 2.4 goals per match.
- They average 2.9 goals per game at home against 1.8 on the road.
- They have kept 10 clean sheets in 28 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 28 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 7 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
- 42% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Stromsgodset away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 7-4-3
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 2.50
- Goals against / match
- 1.43
- Clean sheets
- 4 of 14
- They have won 18 of their 28 league games this season, scoring 2.7 goals per match.
- They have kept 9 clean sheets in 28 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 6 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 4 penalties (75%).
League matches this season before kick-off: Stabaek at home only, Stromsgodset away only.
Stabaek vs Stromsgodset head-to-head
Last 1 meetings: Stabaek 0 · draws 0 · Stromsgodset 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-05 | Stromsgodset | 2-1 | Stabaek | Norway 1. Division |
Other Matchday 30 fixtures
- Haugesund v ODD Ballklubb — match page 2026-11-08
- Sogndal vs hodd — team news & stats 2026-11-08
- Bryne vs Kongsvinger 2026-11-08
- Sandnes ULF v Asane — match page 2026-11-08
- Strommen vs Lyn — team news & stats 2026-11-08
- Raufoss vs Egersund 2026-11-08
- Moss v Ranheim — match page 2026-11-08
Before and after this match
- Stabaek, previous: Kongsvinger v Stabaek analysis
- Stromsgodset, previous: Stromsgodset vs Moss prediction