Updated

Eliteserien · Matchday 23

KFUM Oslo vs Valerenga

· KFUM Arena, Oslo· Referee Marius Lien

Full time2 – 1

Alin prediction was Valerenga to win

Cblended with market oddsMissed

Predicted score 1 – 2

6% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
KFUM OsloDrawValerenga

KFUM Oslo vs Valerenga: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceKFUM OsloDrawValerenga
Model53%21%26%
Market32%26%42%
Published38%25%38%
Edge+5%-1%-4%

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

KFUM Oslo vs Valerenga odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Valerenga, 20 snapshots since 2026-10-03.

Opened 2.30Now 2.25 -0.05
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
KFUM Oslo2.752.88+0.13
Draw3.603.60+0.00
Valerenga2.302.25-0.05

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

KFUM Oslo and Valerenga expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

2.38KFUM Oslo
1.68Valerenga
Total expected goals
4.06
Attack rating (KFUM Oslo / Valerenga)
1.03 / 1.44
Defence rating (KFUM Oslo / Valerenga)
0.85 / 1.28

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

KFUM Oslo vs Valerenga score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 2.4% 2.2% 2.4% 1.4% 0.8% 1 3.4% 7.6% 5.8% 3.2% 2.0% 2 4.9% 8.2% 6.9% 3.9% 2.4% 3 3.9% 6.5% 5.5% 3.1% 1.9% 4+ 4.0% 6.8% 5.7% 3.2% 2.0%

Rows: KFUM Oslo goals. Columns: Valerenga goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

KFUM Oslo vs Valerenga goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 98%
Over 1.5 92%
Over 2.5 77%
Over 3.5 58%
Both teams to score
74%
No goals (0–0)
2%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for KFUM Oslo vs Valerenga

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2KFUM Oslo38%2.66
Draw25%4.05
Valerenga38%2.65
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.577%1.30
Under 2.523%4.35
Both teams to scoreYes74%1.34
No26%3.92
Double chance1X (KFUM Oslo or draw)62%1.61
12 (either side)75%1.33
X2 (draw or Valerenga)62%1.60
Handicap -1Valerenga win by 2+13%7.73
Push (exactly one goal)13%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

KFUM Oslo and Valerenga recent form

KFUM Oslo 4W 0D 2L
Valerenga 2W 2D 2L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

KFUM Oslo at home

Record (W-D-L)
5-2-4
Win rate
45%
Goals for / match
1.18
Goals against / match
1.18
Clean sheets
4 of 11
  • They have won 7 of their 21 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
  • They have kept 5 clean sheets in 21 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 5 of 21 matches.

Valerenga away

Record (W-D-L)
2-3-5
Win rate
20%
Goals for / match
1.40
Goals against / match
2.40
Clean sheets
1 of 10
  • They have won 6 of their 21 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
  • They have failed to score in 7 of 21 matches.
  • 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

League matches this season before kick-off: KFUM Oslo at home only, Valerenga away only.

Injuries & availability

KFUM Oslo absences

  • A. Aleesami groin injury
  • J. Gonstad injury
  • P. Meliga inactive
  • R. Rasch injury
  • T. Soras thigh injury

Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.

Expected lineups

KFUM Oslo lineup · 3-4-2-1

  1. 1 E. Ødegaard
  2. 2 D. Schneider
  3. 5 F. Berglie
  4. 24 H. Røsten
  5. 16 J. Hjorth
  6. 9 M. Vinjor
  7. 19 E. Saunes
  8. 14 H. Hoseth
  9. 10 B. Njie
  10. 11 O. Visted
  11. 22 B. Kristensen

Bench: R. Rasch, B. Tobiassen, B. Skaret, R. Vinge, M. Eikrem, H. Jensen, M. Grødem, A. Nouri, D. Hickson

Valerenga lineup · 4-4-2

  1. 1 O. Hedvall
  2. 24 P. Strand
  3. 55 S. Jarl
  4. 4 A. Kiil Olsen
  5. 3 H. Sjåtil
  6. 77 L. Haren
  7. 10 C. Lange
  8. 26 D. Gjengaar
  9. 11 G. Zahid
  10. 28 M. Westergaard
  11. 90 O. Saeter

Bench: K. Finnsson, H. Nielsen, G. Rajkovic, S. Lønning, O. Holm, M. Grundetjern, E. Rashani, F. Ambina, I. Näsberg

KFUM Oslo vs Valerenga head-to-head

Last 4 meetings: KFUM Oslo 0 · draws 2 · Valerenga 2.

KFUM OsloDrawsValerenga
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-05-03Valerenga2-2KFUM OsloEliteserien
2026-02-21Valerenga1-0KFUM OsloFriendlies Clubs
2025-09-20Valerenga1-1KFUM OsloEliteserien
2025-05-26KFUM Oslo0-1ValerengaEliteserien

Other Matchday 23 fixtures

Before and after this match