Omonia Nicosia vs Benfica preview
Omonia Nicosia faces Benfica with a 43% chance of winning compared to Benfica's 29%. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, with a 9% probability. Omonia has an expected goals figure of 1.49, while Benfica is at 1.17.
Both teams to score has a 55% probability, and there is a 50% chance of Over 2.5 goals. Omonia's recent form shows 4 wins and 2 draws in their last 6 matches, while Benfica has won 5 out of their last 6. A draw at 28% could change the expected outcome, as could a dip in form from either side.
Omonia Nicosia vs Benfica: model vs market
| Source | Omonia Nicosia | Draw | Benfica |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 43% | 28% | 29% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 43% | 28% | 29% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.49 vs 1.17.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Omonia Nicosia and Benfica expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.66
- Attack rating (Omonia Nicosia / Benfica)
- 1.35 / 1.78
- Defence rating (Omonia Nicosia / Benfica)
- 0.57 / 0.71
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Omonia Nicosia vs Benfica score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Omonia Nicosia goals. Columns: Benfica goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Omonia Nicosia vs Benfica goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 55%
- No goals (0–0)
- 8%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Omonia Nicosia vs Benfica
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Omonia Nicosia | 43% | 2.31 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.56 | |
| Benfica | 29% | 3.50 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 50% | 2.02 |
| Under 2.5 | 50% | 1.99 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 55% | 1.83 |
| No | 45% | 2.20 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Omonia Nicosia or draw) | 71% | 1.40 |
| 12 (either side) | 72% | 1.39 | |
| X2 (draw or Benfica) | 57% | 1.77 | |
| Handicap -1 | Omonia Nicosia win by 2+ | 22% | 4.54 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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Omonia Nicosia and Benfica recent form
Omonia Nicosia
4W 2D 0L
Benfica
5W 0D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Omonia Nicosia at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-0-0
- Win rate
- 100%
- Goals for / match
- 2.00
- Goals against / match
- 0.67
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 3
- They have won 3 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
Benfica away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-1-1
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 1.75
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 4
- They have won 5 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 3.0 goals per match.
- They average 4.7 goals per game at home against 1.8 on the road.
- They have converted 4 of 4 penalties (100%).
- 40% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Omonia Nicosia at home only, Benfica away only.
Other League Stage - 3 fixtures
- Bournemouth v AC Milan — match page 2026-10-22
- Hoffenheim vs Lyon 2026-10-22
- Celtic vs Celta Vigo — team news & stats 2026-10-22
- Lillestrom vs Real Sociedad 2026-10-22
- Jagiellonia vs Anderlecht — team news & stats 2026-10-22
- Beşiktaş v Crystal Palace — match page 2026-10-22
- Olympiakos Piraeus vs Sparta Praha — team news & stats 2026-10-22
- Plzen v Levski Sofia — match page 2026-10-22
Before and after this match
- Omonia Nicosia, previous: Omonia Nicosia – Olympiakos, 2026-10-19
- Benfica, previous: Benfica v Celtic analysis