Celtic vs Celta Vigo Prediction & Betting Tips 22/10/2026

Celtic vs Celta Vigo preview

Celtic faces Celta Vigo with a 64% probability of winning and a most likely scoreline of 2-0 at 12%. Celtic's expected goals stand at 1.98, while Celta Vigo has a lower figure of 0.79. The model suggests a 52% chance for Over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance for both teams to score.

Celtic's recent form shows 4 wins in the last 6 matches, while Celta Vigo has drawn 3 times in their last 6. If Celta Vigo can improve their scoring, they might challenge Celtic's defense. However, their lower expected goals could hinder their chances of finding the net.

Celtic vs Celta Vigo: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	Celtic	Draw	Celta Vigo
Model	64%	23%	13%
Market	—	—	—
Published	64%	23%	13%
Edge	—	—	—

Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.98 vs 0.79.
Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).

Celtic and Celta Vigo expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.98Celtic

0.79Celta Vigo

Total expected goals: 2.77
Attack rating (Celtic / Celta Vigo): 1.30 / 0.81
Defence rating (Celtic / Celta Vigo): 0.86 / 0.98

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Celtic vs Celta Vigo score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 7.2% 4.0% 2.0% 0.5% 0.1% 1 11.4% 10.8% 3.9% 1.0% 0.2% 2 12.2% 9.7% 3.9% 1.0% 0.2% 3 8.1% 6.4% 2.5% 0.7% 0.2% 4+ 6.3% 5.0% 2.0% 0.5% 0.1%

Rows: Celtic goals. Columns: Celta Vigo goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Celtic vs Celta Vigo goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 93%

Over 1.5 77%

Over 2.5 52%

Over 3.5 30%

Both teams to score: 48%
No goals (0–0): 7%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Celtic vs Celta Vigo

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	Celtic	64%	1.56
	Draw	23%	4.42
	Celta Vigo	13%	7.58
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	52%	1.91
	Under 2.5	48%	2.10
Both teams to score	Yes	48%	2.07
	No	52%	1.93
Double chance	1X (Celtic or draw)	87%	1.15
	12 (either side)	77%	1.29
	X2 (draw or Celta Vigo)	36%	2.79
Handicap -1	Celtic win by 2+	40%	2.49
	Push (exactly one goal)	24%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

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