Celtic vs Heart Of Midlothian preview
Celtic faces Heart Of Midlothian with a 57% chance to win, while Heart Of Midlothian has a 21% chance. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, which reflects Celtic's expected goals of 2.04 compared to Heart Of Midlothian's 1.37.
Both teams to score and Over 2.5 goals are both at 66%, suggesting a high-scoring match. However, Celtic's recent form shows some inconsistency with 3 wins and 2 losses in their last 6 matches. Heart Of Midlothian's recent form is stronger with 4 wins and 1 draw in the same period. This could impact the outcome, making the match less predictable.
Celtic vs Heart Of Midlothian: model vs market
| Source | Celtic | Draw | Heart Of Midlothian |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 52% | 23% | 25% |
| Market | 59% | 22% | 19% |
| Published | 58% | 22% | 20% |
| Edge | -7% | +2% | +5% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.04 vs 1.37.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.62, recorded — the top price across the 9 books we record, each at its own last update.
Celtic vs Heart Of Midlothian odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Celtic, 50 snapshots since 2026-09-20.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Celtic | 1.44 | 1.57 | +0.13 |
| Draw | 4.50 | 4.30 | -0.20 |
| Heart Of Midlothian | 6.28 | 4.88 | -1.40 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Celtic and Heart Of Midlothian expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.41
- Attack rating (Celtic / Heart Of Midlothian)
- 1.29 / 1.34
- Defence rating (Celtic / Heart Of Midlothian)
- 0.85 / 1.04
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Celtic vs Heart Of Midlothian score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Celtic goals. Columns: Heart Of Midlothian goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Celtic vs Heart Of Midlothian goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 66%
- No goals (0–0)
- 4%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Celtic vs Heart Of Midlothian
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Celtic | 58% | 1.74 |
| Draw | 22% | 4.54 | |
| Heart Of Midlothian | 20% | 4.89 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 66% | 1.51 |
| Under 2.5 | 34% | 2.96 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 66% | 1.52 |
| No | 34% | 2.92 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Celtic or draw) | 80% | 1.26 |
| 12 (either side) | 78% | 1.28 | |
| X2 (draw or Heart Of Midlothian) | 42% | 2.35 | |
| Handicap -1 | Celtic win by 2+ | 31% | 3.18 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 2 |  |
First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 4 |  |
200% first deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Celtic and Heart Of Midlothian recent form
Celtic
4W 0D 2L
Heart Of Midlothian
4W 1D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Celtic at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-0-1
- Win rate
- 75%
- Goals for / match
- 1.50
- Goals against / match
- 0.50
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 4
- They have won 6 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
- They average 2.7 goals per game on the road against 1.5 at home.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 7 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 6 matches.
Heart Of Midlothian away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-1-2
- Win rate
- 25%
- Goals for / match
- 1.50
- Goals against / match
- 1.50
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 4
- They have won 4 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
- They average 2.7 goals per game at home against 1.5 on the road.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- 40% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Celtic at home only, Heart Of Midlothian away only.
Celtic vs Heart Of Midlothian head-to-head
Last 4 meetings: Celtic 1 · draws 1 · Heart Of Midlothian 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-16 | Celtic | 3-1 | Heart Of Midlothian | Scotland Premiership |
| 2026-01-25 | Heart Of Midlothian | 2-2 | Celtic | Scotland Premiership |
| 2025-12-07 | Celtic | 1-2 | Heart Of Midlothian | Scotland Premiership |
| 2025-10-26 | Heart Of Midlothian | 3-1 | Celtic | Scotland Premiership |
Other Matchday 9 fixtures
- Hibernian vs Falkirk — team news & stats 2026-10-17
- Kilmarnock vs Motherwell 2026-10-17
- Aberdeen v ST Mirren — match page 2026-10-17
- ST Johnstone vs Dundee Utd 2026-10-17
- Dundee vs Rangers — team news & stats 2026-10-17
Before and after this match
- Celtic, previous: Benfica v Celtic analysis
- Celtic, next: Celtic v Celta Vigo analysis
- Heart Of Midlothian, previous: Heart Of Midlothian – FC Nordsjaelland, 2026-10-15
- Heart Of Midlothian, next: Trabzonspor v Heart Of Midlothian analysis