ST Johnstone vs Dundee Utd preview
In the match between ST Johnstone and Dundee Utd, the 1X2 probabilities show ST Johnstone at 43% to win, while Dundee Utd stands at 30%. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, with a 12% chance according to our model. ST Johnstone has an expected goals figure of 1.53, which is significantly higher than Dundee Utd's 0.90.
However, there are factors that could change this outcome. Both teams to score has a probability of 48%, indicating a near-equal chance that both sides could find the net. Additionally, ST Johnstone's recent form shows inconsistency with D-L-W-D-L-L, while Dundee Utd has a better recent record of W-W-D-L-W-L. This could impact the match dynamics and result.
ST Johnstone vs Dundee Utd: model vs market
| Source | ST Johnstone | Draw | Dundee Utd |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 51% | 29% | 20% |
| Market | 40% | 27% | 33% |
| Published | 43% | 27% | 30% |
| Edge | +11% | +2% | -13% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.49 vs 0.85.
- The market prices ST Johnstone below the model: +11.0 percentage points of edge.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.38, recorded — the top price across the 7 books we record, each at its own last update.
ST Johnstone vs Dundee Utd odds movement
Median bookmaker price on ST Johnstone, 50 snapshots since 2026-09-20.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| ST Johnstone | 2.30 | 2.34 | +0.04 |
| Draw | 3.48 | 3.50 | +0.02 |
| Dundee Utd | 2.86 | 2.85 | -0.01 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
ST Johnstone and Dundee Utd expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.34
- Attack rating (ST Johnstone / Dundee Utd)
- 1.02 / 0.95
- Defence rating (ST Johnstone / Dundee Utd)
- 0.74 / 0.96
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
ST Johnstone vs Dundee Utd score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: ST Johnstone goals. Columns: Dundee Utd goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
ST Johnstone vs Dundee Utd goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 45%
- No goals (0–0)
- 11%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for ST Johnstone vs Dundee Utd
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ST Johnstone | 43% | 2.33 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.66 | |
| Dundee Utd | 30% | 3.36 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 41% | 2.41 |
| Under 2.5 | 59% | 1.71 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 45% | 2.20 |
| No | 55% | 1.83 | |
| Double chance | 1X (ST Johnstone or draw) | 70% | 1.42 |
| 12 (either side) | 73% | 1.38 | |
| X2 (draw or Dundee Utd) | 57% | 1.75 | |
| Handicap -1 | ST Johnstone win by 2+ | 27% | 3.73 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
ST Johnstone and Dundee Utd recent form
ST Johnstone
2W 2D 2L
Dundee Utd
3W 1D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
ST Johnstone at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-1-1
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 1.75
- Goals against / match
- 1.50
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 4
- They have won 3 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
- They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).
Dundee Utd away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-0-2
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 1.75
- Goals against / match
- 1.75
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 4
- They have won 3 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game on the road against 0.8 at home.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 8 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 8 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: ST Johnstone at home only, Dundee Utd away only.
ST Johnstone vs Dundee Utd head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: ST Johnstone 4 · draws 1 · Dundee Utd 5.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-04-12 | Dundee Utd | 1-0 | ST Johnstone | Premiership |
| 2024-12-26 | ST Johnstone | 1-2 | Dundee Utd | Premiership |
| 2024-08-24 | Dundee Utd | 2-0 | ST Johnstone | Premiership |
| 2023-05-06 | ST Johnstone | 1-0 | Dundee Utd | Premiership |
| 2023-02-18 | Dundee Utd | 1-2 | ST Johnstone | Premiership |
| 2023-01-02 | ST Johnstone | 0-1 | Dundee Utd | Premiership |
| 2022-10-01 | Dundee Utd | 1-2 | ST Johnstone | Premiership |
| 2022-02-05 | ST Johnstone | 0-0 | Dundee Utd | Premiership |
| 2021-10-30 | Dundee Utd | 0-1 | ST Johnstone | Premiership |
| 2021-08-22 | ST Johnstone | 0-1 | Dundee Utd | Premiership |
Other Matchday 9 fixtures
- Hibernian vs Falkirk — team news & stats 2026-10-17
- Kilmarnock vs Motherwell 2026-10-17
- Aberdeen v ST Mirren — match page 2026-10-17
- Dundee vs Rangers — team news & stats 2026-10-17
- Celtic v Heart Of Midlothian — match page 2026-10-18
Before and after this match
- ST Johnstone, previous: Aberdeen vs ST Johnstone prediction
- Dundee Utd, previous: Dundee Utd vs Hibernian prediction